XRP Futures Open Interest Climbs to $2.73B as Traders Brace for U.S. CPI

The following is adapted from CoinDesk's "Daybook" newsletter. XRP, the payments-focused cryptocurrency, is in focus heading into the U.S. CPI report due later today. A bridge connected to the XRP Ledger was exploited earlier, and the token is trading around a pivotal technical level near $1. XRP briefly dipped to $0.99 on some exchanges Tuesday. The rebound was swift, but momentum appears to have faded around $1.02. Over recent sessions, XRP has underperformed bitcoin and the broader market recovery. Derivatives positioning has also intensified. Open interest in XRP futures has risen to 2.67 billion XRP (about $2.73 billion), the highest since October, up from 2.25 billion XRP at the start of the month. The leverage build as XRP sits on key support raises the odds of sharper price swings, leaving it more exposed than larger assets such as bitcoin (BTC) at $64,094.38, ether (ETH) at $1,909.05 and solana (SOL) to the CPI catalyst. Economists expect headline CPI to rise 0.1% month over month in July, following June's -0.4% reading. The year-over-year rate is forecast at 3.4%, down from 3.5%. Core CPI is seen easing to 2.5% from 2.6%. A hotter-than-expected print could reinforce expectations for tighter Fed policy, push already elevated Treasury yields higher and weigh on risk assets. ING says a softer reading could weaken the dollar, a backdrop that would typically support crypto. In bitcoin's case, traders are watching whether CPI can break BTC out of its recent $62,000 to $66,000 range. Options markets are not pricing in a major move. Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said the market implies only a 1.3% post-CPI swing. Laevitas flagged a similar setup, noting on X that 7-day at-the-money implied volatility has compressed to 29.1% for BTC and 41.2% for ETH even with the July CPI landing within the weekly window. Low expectations can also amplify surprise risk if inflation materially beats or misses forecasts. Technical picture: Weekly candlesticks since 2023 show XRP topping above $3.50 in July last year before trending lower. The token is now hovering near $1. A decisive break below would mark the first drop under that level since November 2024, when Donald Trump won the presidential election. If $1 fails, the July 2023 high near $0.92, where prior buying momentum faded, could become the next support. Below that, charts point to potential support around $0.50.