Bitcoin Holds $62,000 Support Despite Geopolitical Shocks; $67,250 Resistance in Focus

Wintermute said in a July 14 market note that Bitcoin remained anchored at the $62,000 support level despite a string of geopolitical shocks, including U.S. airstrikes on Iran and Tehran's announcement of an indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz. According to the report, last week's escalation came as U.S.-Iran talks were suspended. Iran targeted commercial vessels, the U.S. carried out additional strikes, and the Strait of Hormuz closure drove a sharp move in energy markets. Brent crude rose 6.3% on the week, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.57%. Markets have also lifted the implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September to about 61%. Attention now turns to this week's U.S. CPI print, which is expected to shape expectations ahead of the July FOMC meeting. In crypto, Bitcoin has been notably steady through successive risk events. After its deepest pullback held above $62,000, the price has gradually recovered to around $64,000. Ethereum has been comparatively stronger, approaching $1,805. ETF flows also improved. Wintermute noted that the eight-week stretch of outflows ended last week, with combined inflows into Bitcoin- and Ethereum-related products totaling roughly $282 million. While a single week is not enough to confirm a durable reversal, the firm pointed to continued whale accumulation and fading sensitivity to negative headlines as signs that marginal selling pressure is easing, suggesting the market may be forming a near-term bottom. The report added that the market's limited reaction to Strategy's Bitcoin sale stands in contrast to the sharp selloff seen just two months ago after a sale of only 32 BTC, highlighting reduced investor concern about potential supply overhang. Wintermute described Bitcoin's recent action as a "bad news doesn't fall" bottoming pattern, while noting that further confirmation is still needed. Key catalysts include the CPI release, whether ETF inflows can persist, and developments around the Strait of Hormuz. If inflation cools, inflows strengthen, and progress is made on the CLARITY Act, Bitcoin could test resistance at $67,250. If oil prices continue to climb and macro pressures build, the $60,000 support zone could come back into play.