Wintermute: Crypto shows resilience this week, but the uptrend is still unconfirmed

BlockBeats reports that Wintermute released a market note on July 22 highlighting a sharp June cooling in U.S. inflation. Headline CPI fell 0.4% month over month, the biggest one-month decline since April 2020, and year-over-year inflation eased to 3.5% from 4.2%, undershooting the 3.8% consensus estimate. Markets have largely priced out a Federal Reserve rate hike in July. Oil risk, though, re-emerged after renewed U.S. sanctions on Iran and the return of port blockades, pushing Brent crude up 15.54% on the week. Risk assets diverged. ETH gained 3.64% and BTC added 1.46%, while the Nasdaq slid 4.16%. After the CPI print, Bitcoin briefly jumped from around $62,000 to $64,900, and ETH spiked 7% to $1,884. The move triggered about $134 million in short liquidations within an hour. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs logged roughly $191 million in combined net inflows across Tuesday and Wednesday, snapping a 10-day run of outflows. Wintermute noted the rebound remains small relative to June's record $4.5 billion in net outflows and does not, on its own, confirm a trend reversal. Bitcoin kept most of its post-CPI gains despite selling pressure in chip stocks, which Wintermute views as a sign the crypto market's structure is improving. Even so, the firm said a clear uptrend has yet to be established. Wintermute added that a stronger signal would be in place if an ETF posts net inflows for a full week and Bitcoin holds above $66,000 for several consecutive trading days. The outlook could be challenged if Brent breaks above $90 or if the Strait of Hormuz is officially closed.