U.S. June CPI due at 8:30 p.m. Beijing time; markets brace for volatility
AI Market Summary
June U.S. CPI is due today, with consensus pointing to softer headline inflation on gasoline-driven energy declines, while core CPI is expected to remain sticky near May levels. Fed Governor Waller signaled rates could rise near term if inflation stays well above target, making the release a key catalyst for rates repricing. The dollar and rate-sensitive assets may see elevated volatility as focus shifts from CPI to PPI and PCE implications.
Impact level
● High
Affected assets
NCSIDXY2USD/USDT+0.16%
AI Insight · NCSIDXY2USD/USDTAI Insight
● Neutral
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BlockBeats reports that the U.S. Department of Labor will publish June CPI figures at 8:30 p.m. Beijing time on July 14. Key releases include headline CPI year over year, unadjusted (prior 4.20%, forecast 3.80%); headline CPI month over month, seasonally adjusted (prior 0.5%, forecast 0.1%); and June core CPI month-over-month readings in both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted terms. The data is widely seen as a potential catalyst for market swings.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the Fed may need to raise rates \u0022in the near term\u0022 if upcoming data show inflation remains well above the 2% target. He described policy as being at a \u0022crossroads\u0022, with the next direction dependent on fresh information, including Tuesday\u0027s CPI report. Should the data turn unfavorably, he warned the Fed should not become \u0022complacent.\u0022
Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos noted economists expect falling energy prices to pull down June\u0027s overall CPI, though he said core measures currently matter more for the Fed. Core CPI is expected to come in close to May\u0027s 0.21% month-over-month pace. After CPI, attention is likely to shift to PPI and what it may imply for PCE.
InvestingLive analyst Eamonn Sheridan said June CPI is expected to decline 0.2% month over month, which would be the first such drop since the pandemic, driven entirely by a roughly 15% fall in gasoline prices from mid-May to end-June. On a year-over-year basis, headline inflation is projected to slow from 4.2% in May to 3.8%. Core CPI is expected to rise 0.2% month over month, with core inflation seen easing slightly from 2.9% in May to 2.8%.
