Tanker hit in the Strait of Hormuz as U.S.-Iran tensions flare again

Weekly futures roundup (compiled by the Jinshi Futures App) Monday China steps up "precision" control of hog capacity. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission convened major hog-producing provinces and leading companies to assess supply conditions and push routine, targeted regulation aimed at bringing pork prices back to a reasonable range. Officials said prices have stabilized after hitting lows and urged major producers to improve data reporting, cut capacity and output, rein in secondary fattening, cull weaker piglets and reduce average market weights. Key provinces were told to tighten oversight across the chain, accelerate local regulation plans and continue substantive capacity reductions. (MOA) Shaanxi coal output rises. Through end-May, Shaanxi produced 318.837 million tons of coal, up 3.8% year on year, accounting for 16.1% of national output; sales totaled 285.2742 million tons, up 3.12%. In May, 225 mines operated, producing 63.4498 million tons and selling 62.0982 million tons. Shaanxi Coal and Chemical, Shaanxi Investment Group and Shendong Coal produced 31.8664 million tons (50.2% of the provincial total) and sold 30.9971 million tons (49.9%). (Shaanxi Coal Association) Premier Li Qiang calls for high-end equipment push. During a June 22 visit to Dalian, Liaoning, Li said China should develop high-end equipment manufacturing and accelerate a modern industrial system, emphasizing intelligent, green and integrated development, breakthroughs in core technologies and strengthening industrial foundations. At Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Co., Li urged faster progress on key technologies and stronger innovation capabilities. (CCTV) Banks tighten leveraged gold and silver trading; margins rise to as high as 140%. Huaxia Bank lifted margins on all gold and silver deferred contracts to 120%; China Guangfa Bank raised margins from 100% to 140%, effective from the June 22 close. Bank of China will raise margins from June 24, 2026: gold deferred contracts to 120% (from 99.9%) and silver deferred contracts to 119.91% (from 99.96%). Suzhou Bank researcher Wu Zewei said margins above 100% effectively eliminate leverage, likely reducing speculative activity and short-term volumes while improving market order. (China News Service) PBOC: Shanghai Gold Exchange volumes rise; Au(T+D) falls in May. As of end-May 2026, the SGE Au(T+D) contract closed at RMB 984.0/gram, down 3.0% month on month. In May 2026, SGE gold trading volume reached 5,521.8 metric tons, up 2.8% year on year; SHFE gold volume was 11,000 metric tons, down 54.6% year on year. (PBOC) CZCE raises margins, adjusts limits, fees and order sizes for select contracts. From settlement on June 24, 2026: margins for PTA 2608/2609, methanol 2608/2609, short fiber 2608/2609, PX 2608/2609, bottle-grade PET 2608/2609 set at 10% with daily limits at 9%; propylene 2608/2609 margins set at 10%; ferrosilicon and silicomanganese margins set at 7% with daily limits at 6%. From night session June 23: sugar fees to RMB 2/lot; rapeseed meal intraday close fees waived. From June 24: peanut fees to RMB 2/lot and intraday close to RMB 2/lot; ferrosilicon and manganese silicide fees to RMB 2/lot. From night session June 23: minimum opening order size for methanol 2608/2609 and PX 2608/2609 set at 1 lot. DCE consults on coke warehouse receipt cancellation rule. The exchange proposed changing the rule from canceling receipts before the last trading day of March each year to canceling before the last trading day of each delivery month (inclusive). The revision would apply to newly listed contracts after publication. Hebei steelmakers lift coke purchase prices. Prices rose RMB 50–55/ton. Benchmark mill prices (cash and tax included) effective 00:00 on June 22, 2026: Grade-1 wet-quenched coke at RMB 1,980/ton; Grade-1 dry-quenched coke (top-charged) at RMB 2,380/ton. In Shandong, some mills raised tamping coke by RMB 55/ton; quasi-Grade-1 dry-quenched met coke now RMB 1,958/ton. (Mysteel) HBIS June 2026 silicomanganese tender set at RMB 5,980/ton. Initial inquiry was RMB 5,950/ton. May price was RMB 6,050/ton (June 2025: RMB 5,650/ton). June procurement volume is 15,400 tons (May: 8,500 tons; June 2025: 11,700 tons). Allocation: Zhangxuan High-Tech 1,000; Handan 4,000; Wugang 3,000; Tangshan New Area 4,000; Shijiazhuang Special Steel 400; Chengde 3,000. (Mysteel) Tuesday MPOA: Malaysia palm oil output up 4.76% for June 1–20. East Malaysia fell 1.58% m/m while West Malaysia rose 9.98%. Sabah rose 0.42%; Sarawak fell 6.24%. SHFE/INE cut and restructure fees for fuel oil, crude and low-sulfur fuel oil. From the June 25, 2026 session (night session June 24): - SHFE fuel oil: FU2608/FU2609/FU2701 fee set at 0.005% of turnover; intraday close fees waived. FU2610/FU2611/FU2612/FU2702/FU2703 fee set at 0.0001% of turnover with no intraday offset fee; from the first trading day of the second month before delivery, fee rises to 0.0005% while intraday offset exemption stays. - INE crude: SC2608 fee set at RMB 20/lot with intraday close fees waived; intraday close fees waived for SC2609, SC2610, SC2611, SC2612, SC2701, SC2702, SC2703, SC2706, SC2709, SC2712, SC2803, SC2806, SC2809, SC2812 and SC2903. - INE low-sulfur fuel oil: LU2608 fee set at 0.0001% of turnover; intraday open/close fee also set at 0.0001%. LU2609–LU2703 intraday flat fees set at 0.0001%. Trump says Iran accepted long-term nuclear inspections; claims Hormuz stays open. President Donald Trump posted that Iran "fully" agreed to the highest level of long-term (even permanent) nuclear inspections, calling it a prerequisite for further talks. He said he agreed to keep the Strait of Hormuz open and lift a maritime blockade, while keeping vessels on standby. He also said any U.S. Treasury funds released and/or sanctions relief would be placed in a U.S.-controlled escrow account and used only to buy U.S.-sourced food and medicines. SHFE/INE widen limits and raise margins for oil products. Effective from the close and settlement on Thursday, June 25, 2026: - SHFE fuel oil: daily limit 14%; hedging margin 15%; general margin 16% for FU2608, FU2609, FU2610, FU2611, FU2612, FU2701–FU2706 and newly listed contracts. - INE crude (SC2608–SC2906 and newly listed): daily limit 14%; hedging margin 15%; general margin 16%. - INE low-sulfur fuel oil (LU2608–LU2706 and newly listed): daily limit 14%; hedging margin 15%; general margin 16%. World Steel: May 2026 output snapshot. China produced 84.36 million tons, down 2.7% y/y. India 14.1 million (+1.9%); U.S. 7.5 million (+9.2%); Japan 7.0 million (+1.7%); South Korea 5.4 million (+3.3%); Russia 5.6 million (-5.4%); Turkey 3.4 million (+8.9%); Germany 3.2 million (+7.3%); Brazil 2.8 million (+2.4%); Vietnam 2.6 million (+27.2%). Inner Mongolia mine safety regulator orders two-day halt at three mines. Yimin, Sanxing and Dongbo mines were ordered to suspend production and rectify safety hazards under the Coal Mine Safety Production Regulations (State Council Order No. 774). (Yijinhuoluo Banner Mine Safety Supervision Bureau) Malaysia studies feasibility of B50 biodiesel. The Ministry of Plantation and Commodities said the cost of upgrading blended storage tanks is substantial and the government will study B50. Based on 2025 data, total supply is projected at 22.76 million tons (1.71 million beginning stocks, 20.28 million production, 770,000 imports). Of that, 15.27 million tons would be allocated to exports and 4.43 million to domestic demand including biodiesel. Palm oil needed for B30 is estimated at 1.6 million tons per year, about 7.0% of total supply. The long-term plan targets B30 for road transport by 2030. Wednesday NPC Standing Committee questions State Council on unified national market. The 23rd session of the 14th NPC Standing Committee reviewed the State Council report and held a special inquiry on issues including fair competition review, cross-regional enforcement standards, local subsidies and investment promotion, the national power market, platform economy oversight and transport services. Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing said the State Council will draft regulations for the unified national market, improve statistics/tax/performance systems, push infrastructure connectivity, unify key markets such as technology and data, and standardize enforcement. (Xinhua) Xi Jinping stresses agricultural modernization during Shandong visit. During an inspection in Dezhou on June 24, Xi said stable supplies of grain and other key agricultural products remain the top priority, calling for full implementation of support policies, stable supplies and pricing of inputs, promotion of improved varieties and equipment, higher yields and efficiency, stronger infrastructure and high-standard farmland quality, water-saving, and better disaster monitoring and early warning. (Xinhua) Seven agencies launch crackdown on illegal scrap vehicle recycling and dismantling. The Ministry of Commerce and six other departments issued a special action plan to target illegal recycling/dismantling, standardize enterprise practices, raise compliant operating levels, increase the share of end-of-life vehicles recycled, curb illegal activity and improve component recovery and reuse. The plan also calls for coordinated work on standardized recycling of photovoltaic modules and wind turbine blades. Shanxi coking coal restarts stall; output remains below prior levels. Mysteel surveys show 160 coking coal mines in Shanxi were shut as of May 23, totaling 199.4 million tons of capacity. By June 24, 93 mines (112.9 million tons) had resumed while 67 (86.5 million tons) remained shut. Resumption has slowed, and some areas saw more shutdowns. Output at resumed mines remains down 10% to 80%. The 93 mines produced 4.015 million tons before shutdown; latest output was 2.955 million tons, down 26.4%. (Mysteel) China MOFCOM strengthens reporting channels for export-control violations involving strategic mineral dual-use items. Announcement No. 26 of 2026 encourages public reporting of suspected violations such as unlicensed exports, exports beyond license scope/conditions/validity, exports of prohibited items, evasion via modification/disassembly into components, and routing via third countries/regions. Indonesia nickel quota hits early-year ceiling; rumors of second-half relaxation unconfirmed. By end-June, approved 2026 RKAB volume for nickel mining reached the ceiling set by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM). Market speculation is building ahead of mid-year supplementary quota applications, but the final approved total and timing remain uncertain. Separate market talk about relaxing quotas in 2H is unconfirmed by ESDM or local media; sources say some miners may apply for increases next month. (Mysteel, SMM) Thursday IGC sees lower global soybean ending stocks in 2026/27. The International Grains Council forecasts 2026/27 soybean production at 442 million metric tons, trade at 190 million metric tons, consumption at 445 million metric tons, and ending stocks at 76 million metric tons. U.S. May PCE inflation tops 4% as energy costs lift prices. Commerce Department data showed the PCE price index rose 4.1% year on year in May, the first reading above 4.0% since April 2023. Higher oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict pushed up gasoline prices. The Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75% last week, but projections now point to possible hikes this year; markets see September as an early window. China issues "15th Five-Year Plan" blueprint for a new energy system. The NDRC and National Energy Administration said the goal is to preliminarily build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system by 2030. Targets include: total energy production capacity of 5.8 billion tons of standard coal; coal and oil consumption peaking; non-fossil energy at 25% of consumption; wind and solar installed capacity exceeding 50% and becoming the main source of capacity; non-fossil power generation at 50% of total output; accelerated buildout of resilient, green, integrated and intelligent infrastructure; broad self-reliance in key technologies and equipment; and a basically established national unified power market and pricing mechanisms adapted to the new system. (NDRC) UK to cut duty-free steel import quotas by 51% from July 1. Imports above the new quota will face a 50% tariff. Current safeguard quotas and the additional 25% safeguard tariff expire after June 30, 2026. Indonesia sets three-month transition for B50 biodiesel. A mandatory B50 blending requirement takes effect July 1, with a three-month inventory-clearing period. Pertamina aims to clear inventory in two months; smaller retailers have three. Subsidies are funded via palm oil export tax revenue. Indonesia also plans 5% ethanol blending in non-subsidized gasoline in Java in 2026–2027, rising to 10% by 2028. The Energy Ministry estimates the 2026 mandate—B40 in 1H and B50 in 2H—could save about IDR 157.28 trillion in import costs versus IDR 139.8 trillion under B40 for the full year. CISA: national crude steel output estimate slips in mid-June. Key steel firms produced 21 million tons of crude steel in mid-June 2026 (average 2.10 million tons/day, +0.8% m/m), 19.01 million tons of pig iron (1.901 million tons/day, +0.7%), and 20.48 million tons of finished steel (2.048 million tons/day, +5.6%). Estimated national daily averages: crude steel 2.76 million tons/day (-1.0% m/m), pig iron 2.39 million (+0.7%), finished steel 4.23 million (+2.8%). MOFCOM on China-U.S. trade talks: both sides to form a Trade Council. Spokesperson He Yadong said the council will discuss mutually beneficial tariff reductions and other cooperation, and that aerospace and agricultural trade are mutually beneficial. (Xinhua) Malaysia bauxite begins feeding Indonesia's Bintan alumina plant. ALD said the first shipment arrived mid-June, opening a maritime logistics channel to ease shortages caused by delayed approvals of domestic bauxite RKAB quotas. The 4 million-ton/year plant needs about 12 million wet tons of bauxite annually at full run rates. It plans to import 300,000–500,000 tons per month from Johor, Malaysia, building a three-pronged supply mix of own mines, local sourcing and imports, and targeting annual utilization above 95%. (ALD) Friday Oman flags possible fees for Hormuz transits. Sources said Oman told European officials the Strait of Hormuz may not return to pre-war conditions and that ships could be charged for services such as pollution cleanup or navigation support. It remains unclear whether fees would be mandatory. Concerns are rising in the U.S. and Europe that Oman could coordinate with Iran on a fee framework. Iranian media: U.S. and Iran set up a Hormuz communication channel; later disputed. Iran's Press TV reported the two sides established a channel to avoid conflict and that transits must follow routes published by Iran. China-Europe trade talks intensify as friction risk rises. Global Times reported intensive consultations ahead of the first meeting of the China-Europe Trade and Investment Consultation Mechanism, while warning the EU lacks sincerity and is preparing additional protectionist measures. PBOC and Customs propose extending "one batch, one permit" validity to three months. A draft measure on gold and gold products import/export would formalize practices to facilitate trade, including longer validity and optimizing the use of permits. Shanxi Lingshi: 20 coking coal mines resume, 9 million tons of capacity still offline. Mysteel said 29 mines in Lingshi total 27 million tons of capacity; 20 mines (18 million tons) have resumed, with daily raw coal output around 34,000 tons, about 60% of pre-shutdown levels. Nine mines remain suspended due to safety checks and acceptance procedures. Saudi Arabia may cut August crude prices for Asia sharply. A Reuters survey indicates the August OSP for Arab Light could be $1.50–$3.00/bbl above the Dubai/Oman average, down $6.50–$8.00/bbl from July and marking a four-month low. Dubai spot differentials fell into a $1.64/bbl discount this week, the lowest in six years. Draft rules: personal cross-border gold in reasonable quantities exempt from permit. The draft measure says, except as provided in Article 4, individuals carrying or mailing gold and gold products in reasonable quantities for personal use would not need the PBOC import/export permit. NEA: the West to export not only electricity, coal and gas, but also products and "tokens." Spokesperson Wan Jinsong said the 15th Five-Year period will ensure eastern and central energy needs while encouraging local non-fossil development and rational planning of supporting power. High energy-consuming industries will be guided to shift toward the West, aligning advanced manufacturing, computing power and hydrogen with clean energy bases. (E Company) Saturday Iran denies hotline claim. IRGC spokesperson Hossein Mohibi called reports of a Hormuz hotline with the U.S. "entirely fabricated." (CCTV) Israeli official: tripartite U.S.-Israel-Lebanon framework signed; Israel to stay in "security zone" until Hezbollah disarms. The official said Israel would retain operational freedom inside the zone and would gradually withdraw from two areas outside it, handing control to the Lebanese Armed Forces. Israel and Lebanon have not officially responded. (CCTV) U.S. CENTCOM: strikes on Iran after attacks on commercial shipping. CENTCOM said U.S. forces struck Iran on June 26 after Iranian one-way attack drones hit the cargo ship "Ever Lovely" on June 25. It said U.S. aircraft targeted Iranian missile and drone storage sites and coastal radar, calling the attack a ceasefire violation. Venezuela says oil output steady after earthquakes. Oil and Gas Minister Paula Avila said output remains 1.2 million barrels per day and facilities suffered no significant damage, though power shortages could pose risks. Sunday FAO warns El Niño could threaten food security. FAO said a new El Niño could drive extreme weather and food crises in some regions by late 2026 and early 2027, calling for support to farmers. (CCTV) Iran foreign minister: Hormuz under full Iranian supervision for 30 days. Al Jazeera cited Foreign Minister Alirzaei as saying the strait will be managed entirely by Iran for the next 30 days and that any interference would delay reopening. CENTCOM confirms additional strikes after tanker hit. CENTCOM said Iran launched a one-way attack drone at 4:30 a.m. EDT Saturday that struck and destroyed the M/T "Kiku" oil tanker, a Panama-flagged vessel carrying more than two million barrels of crude near the Strait of Hormuz. It said U.S. forces then targeted Iranian surveillance, communications, air defense, drone storage and mine-laying capabilities. Commercial traffic through the strait continues, it said. CNBC: tanker struck in the Strait of Hormuz amid renewed U.S.-Iran escalation. UK Maritime Trade Operations reported a vessel was hit by an "unidentified flying object," causing hull damage; crew were unharmed. Bahrain condemned Iran's drone attack as a "flagrant violation" of sovereignty. The incidents come as the U.S. and Iran were expected to be in 60-day ceasefire negotiations, with both sides accusing each other of violations. Hezbollah rejects Israel-Lebanon framework. Hezbollah's leader said the agreement is invalid, should be replaced by a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, and that linking an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon to Hezbollah's disarmament crosses a "red line."