U.S. Senate Readies September Vote on CLARITY Act as Banks Challenge Stablecoin Reward Programs

The fight over the U.S. CLARITY Act is sharpening as banks intensify opposition to crypto platforms that pay rewards on stablecoin balances. Lawmakers are lining up a pivotal Senate vote in September that could decide the fate of the market-structure bill. At the center of the dispute is whether stablecoin holders should be allowed to earn rewards or yields that function like interest on bank deposits. The bill's current wording limits such rewards, while still permitting certain activity-based incentives. The Senate is in recess, with a procedural vote set for mid-September. The timeline is drawing close attention from market participants given the potential impact on major stablecoins such as USDC and USDT, as well as the platforms that distribute them. The outcome could also influence the legislation's prospects, as banks and crypto firms compete for leverage in the policy process. Prediction-market pricing points to slightly softer expectations for passage. The odds of the CLARITY Act being signed into law by 2026 are currently priced at 18.5% in the submarket ending January 1, 2027, a modest decline from prior levels. Key takeaways: - The clash over stablecoin rewards is escalating, with banks pushing back against crypto incentive programs. - A September Senate vote marks a key inflection point for the legislation. - Market pricing shows a small dip in expectations that the bill becomes law by 2026. What to watch: - The Senate's procedural vote on September 15 may signal the bill's direction. - Comments from President Donald Trump, Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott, and White House Crypto Adviser David Sacks could shape expectations. - Signs of momentum—such as bipartisan backing or supportive White House messaging—could shift market perceptions. Live prediction-market analysis is available via Vera.