U.S. Senate Schedules CLARITY Act Vote for Sept. 15, 2026

September is shaping up to be a pivotal month for crypto markets. The U.S. Senate has set Sept. 15 for a vote on the closely watched CLARITY Act, putting a firm date on legislation that has driven shifting expectations through the second half of the year. Prediction market pricing underscores the uncertainty. Polymarket odds for passage previously surged to a record 58% before sliding sharply to below 20%, a swing that reflects how unclear the bill's trajectory remains. With the vote now on the calendar, the outcome is widely viewed as a potential catalyst for broader crypto sentiment. Not everyone expects sweeping market impact. Grayscale has framed the proposal primarily as regulatory clarification rather than a major growth trigger, noting that crypto activity is already expanding rapidly, including in the real-world assets (RWA) segment. Even so, the prolonged ambiguity has weighed on risk appetite. Despite easing macro fears and a more risk-on backdrop, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has yet to reach the euphoric levels typically associated with strong bull phases. Market watchers argue that clearer direction on the CLARITY Act could be important for restoring retail liquidity. Seasonality adds another layer of caution. AMBCrypto notes that September has historically ranked as the third-weakest month for crypto. The legislative vote also lands in a crowded macro calendar, with a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting expected about 35 days away. Markets are currently pricing close to a 50/50 split between a rate hike and a rate cut, highlighting uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's next move. Taken together, the CLARITY Act vote and the FOMC decision could turn September into a volatility flashpoint for crypto. CoinGlass data show Bitcoin's average September ROI at 3.08%, placing it among BTC's historically softer months. Still, September has not produced a negative ROI since the 2022 bear market, raising the question of whether 2026 could break that recent pattern. That backdrop gives the CLARITY Act added significance. If the bill appears more likely to pass, it could lift confidence and attract fresh liquidity. If momentum fades, September's seasonal weakness and a high-stakes Fed decision could combine to threaten Bitcoin's recent September streak. Summary: September could be a defining month for crypto. Progress on the CLARITY Act may support sentiment, while disappointment could pressure BTC at a time when seasonal and macro risks are already elevated.