Trump Says Iran Deal Reached, Hormuz Reopened and Naval Blockade Lifted

Market Briefing | Monday, June 15, 2026 Top headlines 1) PBOC: On June 15, the People's Bank of China will conduct a CNY 600 billion outright reverse repo with a six-month tenor (183 days), maturing on Dec. 15, 2026 (rolled if it falls on a holiday). The operation will use fixed-quantity, interest-rate bidding with multiple-price allotment. 2) China money supply: At end-May, broad money (M2) stood at CNY 35.367 trillion, up 8.6% y/y. 3) U.S. Energy Secretary Wright: About 7 million barrels of oil leave the Persian Gulf each day. No Iranian crude is currently moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Absent a peace agreement, U.S. forces will resume transiting petroleum products through the strait. 4) Iran's deputy foreign minister: The text of the Iran–U.S. memorandum of understanding has been finalized. 5) Trump: An Iran agreement has been reached; the strait is opened and the blockade is lifted. Macro and policy 1) PBOC liquidity: The central bank said the June 15 six-month, CNY 600 billion outright reverse repo is aimed at keeping banking-system liquidity ample. 2) Money and credit: End-May figures show M2 at CNY 353.67 trillion, +8.6% y/y; M1 at CNY 114.89 trillion, +5.5% y/y; M0 at CNY 14.69 trillion, +11.9% y/y. Net cash injection totaled CNY 590.7 billion in the first five months. Outstanding aggregate financing to the real economy (social financing) reached CNY 458.81 trillion at end-May, +7.7% y/y. New social financing in the first five months of 2026 totaled CNY 17.48 trillion, CNY 1.16 trillion less than a year earlier. 3) Dalian Commodity Exchange: During the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival holiday, daily price limits and margin requirements for all listed futures contracts will remain unchanged. Members are urged to strengthen risk management and client risk disclosures. 4) Freight rates: As of June 12, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) rose to 2,985.22, up 258.74 points from the prior period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite came in at 1,480.11, up 4.9%. 5) Iran deal timeline: CCTV reported that Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said the MoU text has been finalized and will be formally signed in Switzerland on Friday, June 19. 6) Trump statement: Trump said the U.S. has reached an agreement with Iran, authorizing free passage through the Strait of Hormuz and ordering the immediate lifting of the U.S. Navy's blockade of Iran. 7) Pakistan PM: Pakistan's prime minister said the U.S. and Iran have reached a peace deal featuring an immediate, permanent halt to military actions, including in Lebanon, with a signing ceremony set for June 19 in Switzerland. 8) Iranian media: Details of a 14-point Iran–U.S. MoU were published, including an immediate and permanent cessation of hostilities on all fronts (including Lebanon); U.S. commitments to non-interference and respect for Iran's sovereignty; a full lifting of the maritime blockade within 30 days; U.S. withdrawal of forces from around Iran; reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days under Iran's arrangements; and a suspension of sanctions on sales of Iranian oil, petrochemicals and derivatives, along with restored access to financial resources. Global futures: last Friday's moves 1) Crude: WTI fell 3.9% to $84.29/bbl (down 6.90% for the week). Brent slid 3.96% to $86.80/bbl (down 6.76% for the week). 2) Precious metals: COMEX gold rose 3.06% to $4,239.90/oz (down 2.87% for the week). COMEX silver climbed 6.44% to $68.12/oz (down 1.42% for the week). 3) Base metals (LME): Zinc +2.49% to $3,583.0/ton (+1.50% for the week); Tin +2.14% to $53,980.0/ton (+1.97%); Copper +1.71% to $13,713.5/ton (+1.43%); Aluminum +1.17% to $3,543.0/ton (-1.36%); Lead +1.16% to $1,967.0/ton (-1.90%); Nickel +0.55% to $17,790.0/ton (-4.26%). Ferrous and steel 1) HBIS ferromanganese: Hebei Iron and Steel Group's June 2026 procurement is 15,400 tons (May: 8,500 tons; June 2025: 11,700 tons). Allocation: Zhangxuan High-Tech 1,000; Handan Iron and Steel 4,000; Wugang 3,000; Tangshan New Area 4,000; Shijiazhuang Special Steel 400; Chengde Steel 3,000. 2) HBIS ferrosilicon tender: June tender price set at CNY 6,100/ton, with inquiries at CNY 6,000/ton (May: CNY 6,000/ton). June tender volume for HBIS 75B ferrosilicon is 2,600 tons, down 316 tons from the prior 2,916 tons (including 900 tons from Tangshan Medium Plate). Breakdown: Wuyang New Heavy Plate 400 (+150); Handan Steel 700 (+300); Tangshan New Area 600 (+200); Chengde Steel 200 (-66); Shijiazhuang Special Steel 200 (unchanged); Zhangxuan High-Tech 500 (unchanged). 3) Coke: In Shandong (Weifang, Binzhou, Dezhou, Jining, Zaozhuang, Heze, Rizhao, Tai'an, Linyi), prices are set to rise by CNY 50/ton for wet-quenched coke and CNY 55/ton for dry-quenched coke, effective 00:00 on June 15. Xingtai is slated for the same increases effective 00:00 on June 15. 4) Blast furnace utilization (Mysteel, 247 mills): 84.25%, up 0.31 ppt w/w and up 0.84 ppt y/y. Average daily hot metal output was 2.4086 million tons, up 0.14 thousand tons w/w but down 0.75 thousand tons y/y. 5) Imported iron ore stocks (Mysteel): 45-port inventory totaled 165.6421 million tons, up 0.8310 million tons w/w; average daily port discharge was 3.2432 million tons, up 0.0272 million tons; vessels in port: 117, down 1. 47-port inventory totaled 172.9060 million tons, up 0.9553 million tons w/w. 6) Steel inventories (Gangyin E-commerce): Total city inventory was 9.7697 million tons, down 87,900 tons (-0.89%) w/w. Construction steel inventory was 5.4751 million tons, down 28,900 (-0.53%); hot-rolled coil inventory was 2.1896 million tons, down 54,000 (-2.41%). Agriculture 1) Hog margins (week ended June 12): Self-bred hogs posted a loss of CNY 349.83 per head (June 5: loss of CNY 343.8). Purchased piglets posted a loss of CNY 333.8 per head (June 5: loss of CNY 305.7). 2) Canada canola: Canadian Grain Commission data show canola exports for the week ended June 7 fell 53.3% w/w to 117,800 metric tons (prior week: 252,300). 3) Malaysia palm oil: SGS estimates Malaysia's palm oil exports for June 1–10 at 361,256 tons, up 39.01% from 259,869 tons in the comparable period a month earlier. Energy and chemicals 1) Kuwait OSPs: A Reuters-cited pricing document says Kuwait cut its July official selling price for Kuwait Export Crude to Asia to a premium of $5.25/bbl over the Oman/Dubai average, down $7.50/bbl from the prior month. Kuwait also lowered the July OSP for its super light crude by $7.50/bbl to a premium of $5.25/bbl over the Oman/Dubai average. 2) U.S. view on Hormuz and sanctions: Energy Secretary Wright reiterated that ~7 million bpd leaves the Persian Gulf daily and said Iranian crude is not currently moving through the Strait of Hormuz. He said U.S. forces would resume product transit through the strait absent a peace deal, and that sanctions could be partially eased if an agreement is reached. He added the U.S. will not impose an oil export ban aimed at pushing prices down. Metals 1) Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories (last week): Copper +18,735 tons; aluminum +4,394; zinc +1,035; lead +3,023; nickel +6,704; tin -2,287. 2) UNCTAD: The June Global Trade Update projects global lithium demand will rise 353% from 2024 to 2040; graphite demand is seen up 131%. Clean technologies are expected to take a larger share of demand, with lithium's share rising from 62% in 2024 to 87% in 2040. Market commentary (broker views) 1) Polysilicon: CITIC Futures said polysilicon futures opened higher last Friday but pared gains after a reversal, with no fresh official catalyst. With wet-season restarts underway, the elevated futures-curve premium may offer hedging opportunities. Spot prices are steady and June supply-demand expectations look broadly balanced. Reports of potential Q3 output cuts by some producers warrant monitoring. The market is being driven mainly by low valuations and policy expectations; without clear positive follow-through, prices may spike and then retrace, lifting volatility. 2) Coking coal: Guoxin Futures said supply pressure in Shanxi remains high, with slower-than-expected restarts at higher-gas mines and a structural shortage of low-sulfur prime coking coal. Shaanxi support policies have had limited impact, while strong Mongolian imports and Australian arrivals have not quickly changed tight fundamentals. Spot prices have risen broadly in Handan and other regions. Demand remains supported by elevated hot metal output; steel mill restocking is cautious but essential buying continues. Futures have tracked spot strength, trading rangebound with a firmer bias. Near-term prices may stay high and volatile, with focus on Shanxi restarts and spot deal flow. This week: key data and events 1) TBC: Malaysia palm oil export data for June 1–15 (ITS/Amspec/SGS). 2) June 16, 00:00: U.S. May NOPA soybean crush and member soybean oil inventories. 3) June 16, 10:00: China's State Council Information Office press conference on national economic performance. 4) June 16, 12:30: Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision. 5) June 17, 16:00: IEA monthly oil market report. 6) TBA, June 17: WBMS global April metals supply-demand update. 7) June 18, 02:00: Fed FOMC rate decision and SEP; 02:30 press conference. 8) June 19: Domestic China futures markets closed for the Dragon Boat Festival. Trading resumes June 22 (Monday), with night trading returning that evening.