Trump Says He Is Near Decision on New Strikes Against Iran's Infrastructure

Thursday, June 11, 2026 — Futures Morning Rush Top headlines 1) National data: In May 2026, the national CPI rose 1.2% year over year and fell 0.1% month over month. From January to May, CPI increased 1.0% versus the same period last year. 2) U.S.-Iran: President Donald Trump told Fox News he is close to ordering new strikes on Iran's infrastructure, including power plants and bridges. He accused Tehran of stalling talks and refusing to accept what Washington views as the agreement that should have been reached. 3) U.S. inflation: The U.S. Department of Labor said CPI rose 4.2% year over year in May, up from 3.8% in April, the highest since April 2023. Elevated energy costs tied to the Iran conflict remain a key driver. 4) Palm oil: Malaysia's May palm oil inventories were 2,427,835 tons, up 5.15% month over month. 5) Alumina: Mysteel reported Shanxi is conducting safety risk inspections and rectifications across areas including non-coal mines and tailings ponds, impacting about 2 million tons per year of alumina capacity. 6) Hormuz risk: Iran warned the Strait of Hormuz is closed and that any attempt to pass will be met with force. Macro & geopolitics - Iranian media (June 10) cited military sources saying 70% of intended targets were hit in Iran's counterstrike on U.S. forces, involving long-range ballistic missiles and drones that penetrated defenses and struck targets at the U.S. base in Azraq, Jordan; the U.S. base in Ali Al Salem, Kuwait; and the U.S. Fifth Fleet base in Bahrain. - Iran's SNN News Agency quoted Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei saying Tehran needs to reassess the situation following last night's clashes when asked about negotiations with the U.S. - Trump wrote on social media that Iran's military has been "completely defeated," claiming most of its armed forces, including the navy and air force, "no longer exist." - China policy: On June 10, NDRC director Zheng Zhanjie chaired a symposium with economists, saying the agency will speed up development of a modern industrial system, fully implement the "AI+" initiative, strengthen reform and innovation, advance a unified national market, and address "cutthroat" competition. He also said the NDRC will study and prepare targeted, actionable policy tools for timely rollout. - U.S. Central Command said that at 5:15 p.m. ET, additional defensive strikes were initiated against multiple targets in Iran in response to Iran's "unprovoked and ongoing" aggression. - Iran's Supreme Joint Military Command, cited by the Iranian Students' News Agency, said the Strait of Hormuz is closed to all vessels, including tankers and commercial ships, and any vessel attempting to transit will be targeted. Global futures — key moves - Precious metals: COMEX gold fell 4.49% to $4,094.10/oz; COMEX silver fell 2.67% to $63.50/oz. - Crude: WTI rose 4.14% to $91.85/bbl; Brent rose 3.88% to $95/bbl. - LME base metals: Tin -0.95% to $52,005.0/ton; Lead -1.08% to $1,962.5/ton; Copper -1.22% to $13,449.0/ton; Aluminum -1.51% to $3,494.0/ton; Nickel -1.85% to $17,730.0/ton; Zinc -2.45% to $3,468.5/ton. - China futures (as of June 10, 23:00): Most main contracts rose. LPG, low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) and coke gained over 2%; fuel oil rose nearly 2%; propylene, ethylene glycol (EG), methanol, and soybean oil 2 gained over 1%. Synthetic rubber fell nearly 1%. Ferrous & industrials - Mysteel survey: Since May 23, 137 coking coal mines in Shanxi halted production, totaling 158.5 million tons of capacity. As of June 10, 81 mines had resumed (97.3 million tons), while 56 remained shut (61.2 million tons). - Zhonggang Network (week ending June 10): Construction materials output was 4.8064 million tons (+0.0336 million tons week over week). Factory inventory was 5.0067 million tons (+0.0222 million tons). Social inventory was 6.1432 million tons (-0.0178 million tons). Total inventory was 11.1499 million tons (+0.0044 million tons). Apparent demand was 4.8020 million tons (+0.0380 million tons). - Dalian Commodity Exchange: From trading on June 12, 2026 (night session on June 11), non-futures company members/clients may open no more than 500 contracts per day in any coke futures contract. From settlement on June 12, 2026 (Friday), margins for speculative and hedging trades in coke futures will be adjusted from 20% and 15% to 12%. Agriculture - ITS: Malaysia palm oil exports June 1–10 were 427,255 tons, up 3.5% from 412,810 tons in the same period last month. - AmSpec: Malaysia palm oil exports June 1–10 were 376,971 tons, up 4.87% from 359,453 tons in the same period last month. - MPOB (May): Inventories 2,427,835 tons (+5.15% m/m). Imports 43,816 tons (-42.23% m/m). Production 1,516,327 tons (-6.96% m/m). Exports 1,105,760 tons (-14.45% m/m). Energy & chemicals - Fujairah (week ending June 8): Total product inventories at Fujairah port were 5.377 million barrels (+165,000 bbl w/w). Light distillates 2.057 million (-205,000); middle distillates 1.268 million (+40,000); heavy residual fuel oil 2.052 million (+330,000). - Longzhong: As of June 10, 2026, China's methanol port inventories were 566,100 metric tons, down 67,400 from the prior period, with East China down 61,200 and South China down 6,200. Visible unloadings from foreign vessels during the period totaled 58,200 metric tons. - PAJ: Japan commercial crude inventories as of June 6 were 95.367 million kiloliters, down 480,004 kiloliters from 100.167 million a week earlier. - EIA (week ending June 5): U.S. crude exports fell 1.034 million bpd to 4.84 million bpd. Commercial crude inventories excluding the SPR fell 7.227 million barrels to 426 million (-1.67%). SPR inventories fell 7.297 million barrels to 349.2 million (-2.22%), the lowest since the week of Aug. 18, 2023. Commercial crude imports excluding the SPR were 5.888 million bpd, down 509,000 bpd. - Reuters survey: OPEC May crude production fell to the lowest level in more than two decades as U.S. Navy blockades hit Iran's exports and Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz curbed shipments from other Gulf producers. Output fell 1.06 million bpd month over month to 16.13 million bpd, the lowest since 2000. - Trump said on social media he directed the U.S. military last month to conduct a secret mission supporting oil tankers and commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, claiming the operation enabled over 100 million barrels of oil to pass through and reach the open market. Metals - SMM: Bauxite exports from major ports in Guinea in May 2026 were 17.5 million tons, down 21.1% month over month, with year-over-year growth narrowing to 10.9%. Arrivals of Guinean bauxite in China are expected to fall in June and July. - China Passenger Car Association: June 1–7 passenger-vehicle retail sales totaled 228,000 units (-23% y/y, -11% m/m). Year-to-date retail sales were 7.327 million (-20% y/y). June 1–7 wholesale shipments were 204,000 units (-25% y/y, +10% m/m). Year-to-date wholesale shipments were 10.39 million (-6% y/y). - Lithium: Zhongkuang Resources said an online report claiming it prepared lithium concentrate from the Bikita mine in Zimbabwe and shipped 5,000–7,000 metric tons in mid-to-late May is largely accurate. Shengxin Lithium said its Zimbabwe lithium concentrate resumed exports last month but exact volume is unclear, adding "the quota allocated to us is sufficient." Yaxing Group also confirmed shipments have begun but did not disclose tonnage. - Alumina (Mysteel): Shanxi has stepped up risk identification and rectification in non-coal mines and tailings dams. Some alumina producers face safety issues at red mud storage facilities, potentially affecting near-term operations. The impact is currently estimated at about 2 million tons per year of alumina capacity. Research notes - Polysilicon: Hua Wen Futures said rumors of capacity consolidation sparked a late-session sentiment-driven surge in the 2609 main contract, aided by a rebound after prior overselling, marginal fundamental improvement, and policy expectations. Focus remains on actual restarts by producers, the durability of downstream restocking, and details of anti-"cutthroat competition" policy measures. - Alumina: China Everbright Futures said supply-side disruptions—including Guinea policy headlines and intensified safety inspections in Shanxi—are supporting prices. It cautioned that the rebound came with falling open interest, suggesting limited short-term funding support. Macro uncertainty remains elevated, with U.S.-Iran risks still being priced and rising expectations of Fed rate hikes weighing on risk appetite. Key upcoming data/events - June 11: USDA Monthly Supply and Demand Report (TBA). - June 11, 20:00: Brazil Conab June soybean and corn production survey data. - June 12, 00:00: USDA June Monthly Supply and Demand Report.