Markets scale back September Fed hike bets after Waller signals pause if inflation cools

AI Market Summary
Fed commentary, notably Waller's openness to holding rates if upcoming inflation cools, pushed implied September hike odds down sharply. This eases near-term policy-tightening risk and supports risk appetite across equities and crypto, while reducing support for the US dollar and front-end yields. Markets will likely trade with heightened sensitivity to next week's inflation prints given the renewed data-dependence.
Impact level
● High
Affected assets
NCSIDXY2USD/USDT-0.54%
AI Insight · NCSIDXY2USD/USDTAI Insight
▲ Bullish
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Market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September fell to 50.4% from 63.2% after recent Fed remarks. Governor Christopher Waller said he would lean toward keeping rates unchanged if next week's inflation data continue to show cooling price pressures.