Report: U.S. users drive $11B–$34B of offshore prediction-market trading, led by Polymarket

U.S. users are estimated to generate between $11 billion and $34 billion in trading volume on offshore prediction markets, representing roughly 12.5% to 31.5% of total U.S. prediction-market activity, according to a report from consulting firm Crane Zeng. The report attributes a large share of that offshore flow to Polymarket alone, putting the platform's volume from U.S. users at $11 billion to $27 billion. Looking ahead, Crane Zeng projects U.S. user trading on offshore prediction markets will climb to $133 billion annually by 2030. Prediction markets have expanded rapidly over the past two years, with Kalshi and Polymarket among the sector's most prominent names. In the U.S., the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has taken a more permissive approach toward domestically regulated prediction markets, while unlicensed offshore platforms remain barred from serving U.S. customers. Polymarket was prohibited from operating in the U.S. in 2022 after offering unregistered services to U.S. clients.