Report: U.S. Users Could Drive Up to $34B in Offshore Prediction-Market Trading

Odaily Planet Daily cited a report from consulting firm Crane Zeng arguing that U.S. participation in offshore prediction markets may be far larger than platform access rules suggest. While many offshore venues are meant to restrict U.S. users, the report estimates Americans still traded roughly $11 billion to $34 billion on these platforms, equal to about 12.5% to 31.5% of total U.S. prediction-market volume. Polymarket is highlighted as a major contributor, with the report estimating the platform alone may account for $11 billion to $27 billion of the offshore volume tied to U.S. users. The analysis describes these figures as "conservative." Looking ahead, the report projects that if the market-share split between regulated and offshore venues stays broadly unchanged, U.S. users' annual offshore prediction-market trading could climb to $133 billion by 2030. Prediction markets have expanded quickly over the past two years, with Kalshi and Polymarket among the best-known examples. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has recently shown a more permissive approach toward domestic prediction markets, but unlicensed offshore platforms remain barred from serving U.S. customers. Polymarket was blocked from operating in the U.S. in 2022 after offering services to American users without the required registration.