Reduced Tanker Traffic Through the Strait of Hormuz Lifts Crude Prices

Back-to-back strikes by the U.S. and Iran on targets linked to the Strait of Hormuz on June 27–28 disrupted tanker movements, briefly weighing on Persian Gulf crude export flows. On Monday, August WTI crude (CLQ26) and RBOB gasoline (RBQ26) futures settled up 2.20% and 2.66%, respectively. A temporary ceasefire was reached and shipping lanes reopened later Monday, but a material geopolitical risk premium has already been priced into energy markets. Separately, the IEA cut its 2024 global oil demand outlook to -1.1 million bpd, while Russia's refining capacity fell to a 20-year low, reinforcing expectations of tighter supply.