Polymarket Implies 34% Chance for Clarity Act as DOJ Flags AML Risks

Market pricing on Polymarket now puts the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act's chances of passage at 34%, after the US Department of Justice (DoJ) warned that the current draft could weaken antimoney laundering (AML) enforcement amid rising crypto-related crime. In an email to the US Department of the Treasury, the DoJ said the bill, as written, would "impose a higher burden of proof for prosecutions" in moneylaundering cases. The department pointed to Section 604, which would provide broad exemptions and safe-harbor protections for noncustodial developers, decentralized services, mixers and automated protocols. The DoJ argued that these protections could constrain federal prosecutors tasked with enforcing AML frameworks. The warning follows a June 23 caution raised by a coalition that included four law enforcement agencies and Catholic groups. Supporters pushed back during a hearing held today, with Representative William Timmons backing the measure and arguing it helps preserve the US lead in the global economy. Circle Chief Strategy Officer Dante Disparte also said the bill would bolster national security by requiring stablecoins to be backed 1:1 by high-quality assets such as US Treasuries. Senators are now revising the text to respond to the DoJ's concerns and ethics questions tied to President Trump. Draft amendments would direct the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Treasury Department to jointly craft specific AML requirements for decentralized platforms. The updated language would also expand Treasury's authority to sanction platforms viewed as high-risk for illicit financing, and require any entities that retain control over a crypto platform's code to comply with the Bank Secrecy Act (BSA). Lawmakers face a tight schedule, with the next hearing set for next week. If that effort fails, August 7 is the next hard deadline, just ahead of Congress's summer recess.