OPEC Cuts 2026 Oil Demand Growth Outlook Again; White House Still Undecided on Refined Copper Tariffs

Good morning. It's Friday, September 11, 2026. Here's your Futures Morning Rush market brief. Top stories 1) China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issued guidance on cost accounting tied to low-price, disorderly competition in key industrial products. 2) Iran has ordered a temporary suspension of the 10% freight surcharge on foreign vessels carrying energy products to and from Iran, according to Fars News. 3) Shanxi Provincial Energy Bureau said that by 2030 the province's coal mine capacity will stay near 1.3 billion tons per year, with output stabilized around 1.25 billion tons, aiming for stable production, output and reserves. 4) Malaysia's August palm oil inventory rose to 2.8245 million tons (+7.48% m/m). Crude palm oil output climbed to 1.8175 million tons (+1.39% m/m) and exports fell to 1.2947 million tons (-7.50% m/m), MPOB data showed. 5) OPEC's monthly report lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 380,000 barrels per day, the fifth consecutive downgrade. 6) The White House has not yet decided on refined copper tariffs as officials weigh the benefit of supporting domestic mining against the risk that higher copper prices raise manufacturing costs, Reuters cited two sources as saying. 7) Yemen's Houthi forces have taken the Hanish Islands, a strategic location in the Red Sea. Macro and policy - The NDRC and the State Administration for Market Regulation said they will focus on sectors where low-price disorderly competition is prominent, issue warnings to suspected operators and, when needed, launch cost investigations. - The Philippines' agriculture minister said the Department of Agriculture is seeking at least PHP 300 million in funding by 2027 to expand the palm oil industry and cut heavy reliance on imports. - A Houthi spokesperson said navigation and international trade through the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait remain safe and uninterrupted. - The U.S. Climate Prediction Center said this year's strong El Niño has a 75% chance of becoming a "historic event", exceeding all records since 1950, and could strengthen further before year-end. - U.S. August PPI data sent mixed signals as Fed officials debate next week's decision. The headline PPI rose 2.4% y/y (as stated in the source), and core PPI increased 0.2% m/m versus expectations of 0.3%. Markets fully priced in an October rate hike after the release. - Yemeni officials said government naval forces withdrew from the Hanish Islands, after which Houthi forces deployed there. The Yemeni military later designated an area along the western coast a "combat zone." - In Treasury Secretary Bentsen's first expanded-scale buyback operation, the U.S. Treasury repurchased $5.187 billion of 10–20-year Treasuries, below the $6 billion maximum, adding to long-end selling pressure and pushing yields to multi-year highs. Global futures moves - Crude surged: front-month WTI settled up 8.2% at $103.93/bbl; front-month Brent rose 7.98% to $109.29/bbl. - Precious metals sold off: COMEX gold fell 2.29% to $4,358.50/oz; COMEX silver dropped 6.64% to $64.09/oz. - LME base metals broadly lower: lead -0.73% to $1,900.5/t; nickel -1.61% to $16,625.0/t; tin -2.00% to $54,115.0/t; aluminum -2.46% to $3,274.5/t; copper -3.96% to $14,182.5/t; zinc -4.87% to $3,855.0/t. Ferrous (steel, coal, coke) - Mysteel: utilization at 523 coking coal mines rose to 70.8% (+2.9% m/m). Average daily raw coal output was 1.589 million tons (+66,000 m/m). Raw coal inventory reached 4.065 million tons (+52,000 m/m). Average daily clean coal output was 662,000 tons (+34,000 m/m). Clean coal inventory was 1.315 million tons (+13,000 m/m). - Mysteel (week ended Sep. 10): rebar output 1.716 million tons (+24,700 w/w, +1.46%); mill inventory 1.6181 million tons (+23,100 w/w, +1.45%); social inventory 4.893 million tons (-161,600 w/w, -3.20%); apparent demand 1.8545 million tons (+66,300 w/w, +3.71%). - Shanxi reiterated its 2030 coal capacity and output targets: about 1.3 billion tons of capacity and roughly 1.25 billion tons of output. - Mysteel coke profits: independent coking plants averaged 17 yuan/ton nationwide. Shanxi secondary-grade coke averaged 43 yuan/ton; Shandong 15 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia metallurgical coke 3 yuan/ton; Hebei secondary-grade coke 64 yuan/ton. Agriculture - Zhuochuang Information estimates Xinjiang's 2026 cotton output near 7 million metric tons, down 4.34% y/y. - China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs released the "15th Five-Year Plan" for the livestock and veterinary sector, including exploring targeted regulation of capacity concentration among leading hog producers, annual production registration management and broader oversight of capacity and output. - Mysteel (as of Sep. 10): imported cotton inventories at major ports totaled 594,500 metric tons (-0.03% w/w). Qingdao held 502,000 metric tons (+135% y/y); Zhangjiagang and nearby areas about 51,500; other ports about 41,000. Shipments were steady and inventories edged lower. - USDA: private exporters reported soybean sales of 2.72 million metric tons to China and 2.065 million metric tons to unknown destinations, both for 2026/2027 delivery. - USDA drought update: drought-affected area in U.S. soybean regions eased to 27% from 30% the prior week; corn regions to 25% from 28%; cotton regions rose to 63% from 59%; winter wheat regions held at 59%; spring wheat regions fell to 57% from 82%. - Malaysia palm oil exports (Sep. 1–10): AmSpec estimated 357,194 tons (-17.46% vs the same period last month); ITS estimated 393,295 tons (-11.7%). - MPOB (Aug.): palm oil imports 495,240 tons (-0.09% m/m); inventories 2.8245 million tons (+7.48% m/m); CPO production 1.8175 million tons (+1.39% m/m); exports 1.2947 million tons (-7.50% m/m). Energy and chemicals - Longzhong: as of Sep. 10, 2026, China soda ash producers' inventories totaled 1.9311 million tons, up 10,500 tons from Monday (+0.55%). Light soda ash inventories were 1.0044 million tons (-10,700 w/w); heavy soda ash 926,700 tons (+21,200 w/w). Versus last Thursday, total inventories increased by 19,800 tons (+1.04%). - EIA natural gas storage (week ended Sep. 4): 3.254 Tcf, up 40 Bcf w/w, down 79 Bcf y/y (-2.4%), and 148 Bcf above the five-year average (+4.8%). - OPEC cut its 2026 demand growth estimate to 380,000 bpd, but said the consumption hit since the outbreak of the Iran war has been less severe than assessments from agencies such as the IEA, which expect 2026 demand to decline. - Oil rallied more than 6% Thursday, lifting both benchmarks above $100/bbl. November Brent settled up $6.42 (+6.34%) at $107.63; October WTI gained $6.43 (+6.69%) to $102.48. Both logged their biggest one-day rises in nearly two months and the highest levels since May 19. Reports said Houthi forces took control of Yemen's Al-Mukha port, raising risks for Red Sea shipping. Metals - SMM: as of Sep. 10, zinc ingot inventories across seven locations totaled 218,200 metric tons, down 14,600 from Sep. 3 and down 3,900 from Sep. 7, extending the domestic drawdown. - SMM: offshore alumina trades included 50,000 metric tons at $364.5/mt FOB Indonesia for November shipment (Sep. 9) and 30,000 metric tons at $354/mt FOB Western Australia for October shipment (Sep. 8). - Reuters: the White House remains undecided on refined copper tariffs as it balances domestic mining support against cost pressures from higher copper prices. - Fubao Information: as of Sep. 10, weekly lithium carbonate output was 25,400 tons (+2.83% w/w, +700 tons). Inventory was 69,400 tons (-2.48% w/w, -1,767 tons). Futures strategy notes (from brokers) - Sanli Futures: Rising rate expectations and risk-off sentiment are keeping precious metals rangebound. Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran and Houthi control of Mocha have lifted risk premia, while the oil surge has reinforced inflation and rate-hike expectations. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to around 4.85%, a three-year high, weighing on metals. Spot gold has been trading around $4,400–$4,450/oz, briefly dipping below $4,390 in Asia before rebounding. Support comes from a three-day decline in the dollar index and central-bank gold buying in August. Attention turns to Saturday's U.S. August CPI print; markets assign a 60.2% probability of a September hike. A softer dollar and official-sector buying underpin gold, while high yields cap rallies. - Shouqi Futures: Glass prices are soft and rangebound as some East China production lines are expected to ignite this week, with supply likely reaching the market in October. Unplanned cuts on some South China lines last week may lower output this week. Demand signals remain mixed: average order coverage for processed sample firms is 10.3 days (+8.47% m/m, -0.9% y/y). North China shipments improved, helped by restocking and inventory-building tied to orders, pickups and higher prices. With dual holidays approaching, producers remain keen to ship and some are using price increases to drive sales. Watch downstream orders and production-line changes. Key data and events - Sep. 11, 20:30: U.S. August seasonally adjusted core CPI m/m. - Sep. 12, 00:00: USDA September WASDE supply-and-demand report.