Nakamoto Project: Bitcoin Ownership Now Exceeds Gold Among U.S. Adults

A new report from The Nakamoto Project points to a notable shift in U.S. household asset preferences: more American adults now own Bitcoin than gold. The study, compiled by financial services firm River, estimates about 49.6 million U.S. adults hold Bitcoin—18.6% of the adult population. By comparison, roughly 28.8 million adults, or 10.8%, report owning gold. The report highlights the contrast in track records: Bitcoin has a 16-year history, while gold spans about 5,000 years. River's analysis suggests Bitcoin may be gaining traction as a reserve-style asset in the U.S., even as its price is down about 10% over the past year. In markets, Bitcoin is trading around $76,000–$77,000, while gold has climbed to $5,300 per ounce. The widening ownership base could act as a catalyst for sentiment and demand, with prediction markets showing mixed expectations for July. One set of market odds implies a 76.5% probability of Bitcoin reaching $67,500, while the chance of $82,500 is priced at just 1%. Key takeaways • Bitcoin ownership among U.S. adults now exceeds gold ownership, according to The Nakamoto Project. • Sentiment may benefit from broader adoption, even though Bitcoin has declined about 10% over the past year. • July pricing in prediction markets is uneven, with a high implied probability for $67,500. What to watch Traders are likely to focus on catalysts that could shift Bitcoin's trajectory, including regulatory developments and signs of institutional buying. Large purchases by firms such as MicroStrategy or Ark Invest could reinforce higher price targets. Regulatory setbacks or negative ETF flows could weigh on sentiment. Monitoring these drivers will be key over the coming weeks. Live prediction-market analysis is available via Vera. Sign up for Vera.