JPMorgan lays out CPI scenarios: S&P 500 seen rising if core CPI stays below 0.25%
AI Market Summary
JPMorgan's scenario analysis frames tonight's CPI print as a key near-term catalyst for US equities. A softer core CPI (0.15%–0.20%) is associated with a positive S&P 500 reaction, while an upside surprise (0.25%–0.30%) could pressure risk assets, reflecting sensitivity to the inflation path and implied policy expectations. The setup suggests elevated event risk and potentially higher volatility around the release.
Impact level
● High
Affected assets
NCSISP5002USD/USDT-0.19%
AI Insight · NCSISP5002USD/USDTAI Insight
● Neutral
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On Aug. 12, JPMorgan's trading desk published scenario analysis ahead of tonight's CPI release. The bank said that if core CPI prints at 0.15%–0.20%, the S&P 500 could gain about 0.5%–1%. Even if the data lands in the baseline range of 0.20%–0.25%, it still sees the index up roughly 0.25%–0.75%. If core CPI comes in hotter at 0.25%–0.30%, JPMorgan expects the S&P 500 could fall around 0.5%–1.25%.
