Iran Says Hormuz Strait Still Not Reopened; China's July 2026 CPI Up 0.5% YoY

A roundup of major futures- and macro-related developments from the past week. Regulation and market operations - CZCE issued a risk alert, citing heightened uncertainty and sharp price swings in related products. The exchange urged stronger risk controls and compliance, and said it will step up daily oversight and pursue violations. - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange will introduce spread orders from August 24, 2026 (effective from the night session on August 21). The initial rollout covers crude oil futures. Orders are futures-only, with a minimum of 1 contract and a maximum of 500. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will also launch spread orders from August 24, 2026 (effective from the night session on August 21). The first products include copper, gold, rebar and natural rubber futures. Orders are futures-only, 1–500 contracts. - Dalian Commodity Exchange said coke options will start trading on September 2, 2026, including the night session. Position limit is 5,000 contracts, set separately from coke futures, with aggregation rules for entities under common control. Supported order types include limit orders and limit stop (profit/loss) orders; max order size is 500. - DCE amended its coke futures delivery rules, requiring cargo owners to notify delivery warehouses at least three calendar days before delivery with vehicle/vessel details, product type, quantity and ETA. Policy and industry - China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) said steel export volumes fell in 1H 2026 while prices were stable; billet exports rose sharply. Overseas trade friction intensified, with 12 new anti-dumping probes. With EU safeguard changes and broader geopolitical disruptions raising uncertainty, CISA called for strict implementation of the steel export licensing regime and a shift toward higher value-added and greener exports. - NDRC and the National Energy Administration released the "14th Five-Year Plan for Building a New Power System." Key targets include promoting wide-load, high-efficiency retrofits for existing coal-fired units and capping the increase in coal consumption under low-load operation to within 25%. The plan also calls for full-load denitrification retrofits where appropriate, 600MW-class cross-generation upgrade projects, and piloting co-firing of zero/low-carbon fuels plus CCUS retrofits in suitable regions. Policies will support coal-power and renewables integration and unified dispatch to reduce coal-fired generation. - MIIT held a photovoltaic industry symposium on July 30 to clarify and promote three new mandatory national standards covering PV module safety, labeling, and energy-efficiency limits/grades for crystalline silicon PV modules and inverters. - India is preparing a production-linked incentive program for polysilicon manufacturing, extending support further upstream in the solar supply chain. - Eight polysilicon producers signed a "Call to Action" pledging to sell at or above full cost, curb predatory pricing and accept oversight. With domestic transaction prices reported as low as RMB 32,000/ton for N-type reprocessing material and RMB 31,000/ton for granular polysilicon, a rebound of more than 40% would be needed to return to the industry's estimated full-cost level; a participating executive said punitive measures may follow to reinforce self-discipline. Commodities: supply, pricing and trade flows - Indonesia's statistics bureau reported 1H crude and refined palm oil exports of 11.28 million tons, up 2.5% year over year, with export revenue at $12.27 billion, up 7.32%. Official figures exclude palm kernel oil, oleochemicals and biodiesel. - A five-day survey found coking plants in Shanxi and Hebei have implemented output cuts mainly in the 10%–30% range; some were long-term, others driven by inventory and margin pressure. A few plants increased cuts by about 10% from last week. - Mysteel reported major Tangshan steel mills plan to cut purchase prices for wet-quenched coke by RMB 50/ton and dry-quenched coke by RMB 55/ton, effective midnight August 7, 2026; some Xingtai mills will follow the same adjustments. - World Gold Council said gold ended July roughly unchanged as supportive factors offset risks. It flagged the possibility of a late-1970s-style second inflation wave, noting gold's direction will hinge on real rates, the U.S. dollar, growth expectations, Asian investor demand, and central bank responses. - Reuters cited a decree showing the Democratic Republic of the Congo has banned exports of copper and cobalt concentrates. A new tax system will apply a 55% valuation coefficient to mining byproducts of significant economic value; the framework takes effect in three months, while immediate reporting requirements begin now. - Weda Bay Nickel received an additional RKAB quota of about 25 million wet metric tons of nickel ore for 2H 2026, lifting its 2026 total to about 37 million wet metric tons. - China Gold Association said 1H 2026 domestic raw material gold output fell 14.62% year over year to 152.908 tons. Imported raw material gold output rose 4.62% to 77.080 tons. Combined output totaled 229.988 tons, down 9.01%. Gold consumption rose 1.23% to 511.412 tons; jewelry fell 33.88% to 132.133 tons, bars and coins jumped 28.42% to 339.336 tons, and industrial/other uses slipped 2.90% to 39.943 tons. - People's Bank of China data showed July liquidity conditions included a net RMB 50 billion open-market injection via Treasury purchases. Tool-by-tool: SLF net withdrawal RMB 1 billion; MLF net injection RMB 100 billion; PSL net withdrawal RMB 116.1 billion; 7-day reverse repos net injection RMB 249.5 billion; central government treasury cash management net injection RMB 30 billion. - PBOC increased gold reserves for the 21st straight month. End-July holdings were 76.08 million troy ounces (about 2,366.353 metric tons), up 640,000 troy ounces (about 19.91 metric tons) from the prior month. - A local Yichun authority said CATL's Jiexiawo lithium mine is shut for maintenance, with no mining, loading or crushing observed; the company has been instructed to complete EIA approval procedures. Central banks and macro - New York Fed President John Williams told Reuters he expects inflation to cool; if it does not, the Fed would be prepared to raise rates to return inflation toward 2% and maintain it there, targeting a stable 2% by 2028. He said he expects inflation to ease in the second half of this year and fall further next year, and described current policy as well positioned. - China's National Bureau of Statistics said July 2026 CPI rose 0.5% year over year. Urban CPI rose 0.5% and rural CPI 0.4%. Food prices fell 1.5% and non-food rose 0.9%. Consumer goods increased 0.2% and services rose 0.7%. CPI for January–July was up 0.9% year over year. On a month-over-month basis, July CPI fell 0.1%: food was flat, non-food down 0.1%; consumer goods down 0.6% and services up 0.4%. - Reuters survey ahead of the USDA August WASDE put average estimates for U.S. ending stocks at: 2025/26 soybeans 321 million bushels (range 300–330; July USDA 330); 2025/26 corn 1.999 billion (1.948–2.136; July 2.020); 2026/27 soybeans 304 million (250–387; July 310); 2026/27 corn 1.725 billion (1.600–1.986; July 1.790); 2026/27 wheat 715 million (692–750; July 722). - U.S. July nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000, the first decline since February, versus expectations for +80,000. Unemployment edged down to 4.1% (consensus 4.2%), the lowest since June 2025. Rates, housing and labor - China's mainstream mortgage rates remain around 3.0%–3.1%, with sub-3% "2-handle" deals largely limited to promotional offers from a small number of foreign banks in select regions, according to banks and real estate agencies cited by China News Service. Economist Dong Ximiao said such rates are tied to specific channels and strict eligibility checks. - Wage talks at BHP's Port Hedland operations have not reached agreement, and a two-day strike will proceed on August 8 and August 9, according to the United Port Workers Union. BHP said it will submit an updated proposal at the next meeting on August 18. Geopolitics and shipping: Hormuz, Red Sea and Black Sea - Qatar said a draft text for a potential U.S.–Iran agreement has been prepared and is circulating among parties, with mediators including Qatar, Pakistan and Oman coordinating to push talks forward. Qatar said there is no set agenda yet for direct U.S.–Iran negotiations. - Reuters cited senior Iranian sources saying talks with Oman on reopening the Strait of Hormuz include an interim plan granting Iran full control over incoming shipping. Outbound vessels would take a designated route between Iran and Oman; Oman could allow departures only after notifying Iranian officials. - U.S. outlet MS NOW cited diplomats saying Oman and Iran agreed a temporary framework to reopen the strait with commercial vessels entering via Iranian-controlled lanes and exiting via Omani-controlled lanes, without tolls. The framework is described as a temporary arrangement tied to a potential ceasefire announcement and resumption of nuclear talks; a Gulf state official said GCC members have approved the arrangement in principle. A U.S. official said Washington supports only a temporary reopening under free and unimpeded passage. - Iran's Fars News reported parliament is reviewing a bill to tighten transit rules in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, including potential bans on vessels linked to the U.S., Israel and other hostile countries, restrictions on Israel-related cargo, and fines up to 20% of cargo value. The proposal remains under review. - Iranian officials told Al Jazeera that U.S. interference and Trump's military threats are the main reasons for delays in an Iran–Oman understanding on Hormuz, and said Iran will not accept an agreement under threats. - Iraq's oil minister said the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut Iraq's oil exports by 75%, down from about 3.4 million barrels per day previously shipped via the route; Iraq is negotiating with Iran and is seeking to diversify export channels. - The Wall Street Journal reported U.S. officials say Trump's priority is restoring free energy flows through Hormuz and that military options remain if Iran attacks vessels again; officials said a sustained ceasefire is more likely if Iran's nuclear program is contained and shipping normalizes. - On August 9, Iranian Foreign Minister Alirza said Iran is in final-stage consultations with Oman on adjusting shipping lanes, stressing that lane adjustments would not mean Hormuz has reopened and that reopening still requires meeting a series of conditions; technical work is underway. - Yemen's Houthi movement claimed it struck the Saudi oil tanker "Wafa" in the Red Sea north of Yanbu with a ballistic missile, and said it has attacked eight Saudi oil tankers since a blockade began on July 22, while forcing 29 more to turn back. - A U.S. official said Ukraine has agreed not to attack non-Russian oil tankers or key Black Sea infrastructure critical to Kazakhstan's crude exports, and has set up a liaison point for shipping companies. - Syria is reportedly agreeing to sharply cut imports of Russian oil in connection with the U.S. lifting Syria's designation as a state sponsor of terrorism; sources said the topic was raised prominently in negotiations. U.S. politics and the Fed - Trump said Fed rate decisions are not solely up to Chair Kevin Warsh, citing the committee's role, and said he would not criticize Warsh. - The U.S. Senate passed a stopgap funding bill to fund the government through December 11, in a 90–6 vote, aiming to avoid a shutdown at the start of the fiscal year on October 1; the House must still act. Steel and iron ore market structure - CISA said a fairer, more transparent and more sustainable iron ore market order is gradually forming, citing China's large domestic market as a stabilizer, a push for diversified supply, a consensus to address upstream–downstream profit imbalances, and progress toward a more objective pricing mechanism anchored in China's port spot market rather than a narrow set of dollar-priced overseas transactions.