Iran says it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the U.S. lifts its blockade

Good morning. Today is Wednesday, September 23, 2026. Hot topics 1) Iranian media: Iranian sources deny reports about reopening the strait. 2) Asian refiners: Aramco has offered informal assurances that oil liftings from Yanbu Port will soon be possible. 3) Iran: The Iranian delegation has been fully authorized to pursue restoring diplomatic contact with the U.S. in New York. 4) Iran says it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within "7 days" after the United States lifts sanctions. 5) El Niño has delayed Indonesia's rainy season; palm oil output is expected to fall by 28% in 2027. 6) Coal: Only some mines have completed inspections and resumed; most idled mines are still awaiting sign-offs for rectification. 7) Rubio: Open to meeting Iranian representatives at the United Nations. 8) Indonesia IMIP: RKEF nickel pig iron plants have started curtailments; operating rates are down to about 30%40%. 9) Iran confirms that talks with the U.S. included conditions tied to reopening the strait. Macro Reuters reports a senior Iranian official said Tehran would welcome renewed diplomatic contact if the United States takes concrete steps. Iran's delegation has full authority in New York to pursue restoration of diplomatic contact and can discuss, via mediators, the details of a deal to end hostilities. The proposal was conveyed to the U.S. through mediators on September 16. Kyodo News reports an Iranian senior official said Iran told the Trump administration it would open the blockaded Strait of Hormuz within "seven days" if Washington accepts Iran's demands to lift the military blockade on Iranian ports. NBC News cites U.S. Secretary of State Rubio as saying he is willing to meet Iran during the United Nations. Rubio said President Trump is open to meeting anyone, but no meeting is currently scheduled between Trump and Iran's president. He added most vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz have not been attacked, and roughly 60% to 70% of oil shipments have resumed, with the share still rising. Iran's Fars News Agency quoted Iranian sources calling the Reuters and Kyodo reports on reopening the strait unreliable and untrue. Earlier, renewed optimism around U.S.Iran negotiations and a possible reopening of Hormuz weighed on the oil market and pushed prices lower. President Trump said he urges Iran to reach an agreement, said Iran made a serious mistake and that the U.S. military destroyed its nuclear program, and reiterated he would never allow Iran to possess nuclear weapons. Trump said he believes an agreement could be reached after the U.S. midterm elections. Iranian state media reported Iran's foreign minister met U.S. presidential envoy Witkoff on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. Iran presented "strict" conditions, including an immediate end to the maritime blockade, the immediate release of frozen Iranian assets, and an end to all wars on the "resistance" front as prerequisites for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Trump also said U.S. officials previously held a three-hour meeting with the Iranian delegation and that talks progressed smoothly. Global futures market moves Precious metals: COMEX gold rose 0.28% to $4,396.20/oz; COMEX silver gained 1.80% to $67.61/oz. Crude: Front-month WTI fell 2.73% to $89.85/bbl; front-month Brent slipped 1.59% to $94.71/bbl. Base metals (LME): nickel +1.51% to $16,565.0/t; tin +0.98% to $54,470.0/t; copper +0.83% to $14,783.0/t; lead -0.23% to $1,932.0/t; aluminum -0.24% to $3,259.0/t; zinc -0.38% to $3,911.5/t. China domestic futures (close 23:00, Sept 22): most main contracts fell. Ethylene glycol (EG), short fiber, and bottle flakes dropped more than 2%. PTA, LPG, styrene (EB), polyethylene monthly average, and polypropylene monthly average fell more than 1%. Low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) and corn posted modest gains. Black sector Duocai Mongolia notes that under the ChinaMongolia border-crossing management agreement, crossings close on statutory holidays in both countries. During China's National Day holiday, the Erlian, Ganqimodu, Mandula, and Alshan highway ports will close from October 1 to October 7. Mysteel says throughput at the Ganqimaojiu port remains below prior levels and has retreated from earlier peaks. Port inventories have slipped below 17 million tons, tightening spot availability. Jiaolianwang reports that only some coal mines have completed inspections and resumed production, while most shuttered mines are still waiting for rectification approvals. Even as supply-assurance policy encourages higher output and some mines apply to raise production, long approval timelines and strict safety supervision are limiting near-term capacity additions. Mysteel data show iron ore inventories across seven major ports in Australia and Brazil totaled 11.954 million tons for September 14–20, 2026, up 258,000 tons week over week. Inventories have rebounded slightly but remain the second-lowest since Q3. Agriculture Indonesia's meteorological agency said the rainy season expected to start in November will be shorter than usual, with 61% of the country seeing delays. Farmers are adjusting planting schedules. A palm oil analyst at a global trading firm estimates Indonesia's 2027 palm oil output could fall 2–8% due to this year's drought. As of September 22, nationwide port inventories of soybean oil were 1.026 million tons versus 1.003 million tons on September 15, up 23,000 tons. China's National Grain Trading Center announced an auction of imported soybeans on September 28, 2026, starting at 13:30. The sale totals 5.14 million metric tons of 2022–2024 origin soybeans across 12 provinces and municipalities including Tianjin, Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, Guangdong, and Sichuan. SGS estimates Malaysia's palm oil exports for September 1–20 at 830,742 tons, up 49.53% from 555,572 tons over the same period last month. The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) expects Malaysia's 2027 palm oil exports to hold around 16 million metric tons, while Indonesia's 2027 exports are projected to drop by nearly 3 million metric tons. Malaysia's August 2026 production is seen edging up 1.4% month over month to 1.81 million metric tons. With weather uncertainty and supportive energy markets, crude palm oil prices are expected to stay above RM4,700/ton in October and through year-end. China's National Grain Data Center said oil mill operating rates stayed high in September and soybean meal inventory accumulation accelerated last week, rising to above 1.1 million tons by the 18th. With the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday approaching, month-end inventories may dip slightly to around 1.1 million tons, broadly flat month over month and year over year. Argentina's Buenos Aires Grain Exchange forecast 2026/27 soybean production at 53.6 million metric tons and corn at 66 million metric tons. For 2025/26, it reported soybeans at 50.1 million metric tons and corn at 64 million metric tons. India's Agriculture Ministry data show kharif sowing has nearly caught up with last year despite smaller areas for several key crops. As of September 18, farmers had sown 110.39 million hectares, down 1.3% year over year, a reduction of 1.5 million hectares. Energy and chemicals Traders say Aramco has informally told several Asian refiners they will soon be able to lift oil from Yanbu on the Red Sea. At least three refiners have received informal assurances from Aramco executives, though no formal notice has been issued. Jinlianchuang data show August asphalt imports of about 171,100 tons and exports of about 211,300 tons, leaving exports roughly 40,000 tons higher than imports, unlike typical net imports in prior years. Inyite said that with PVC prices below expectations and after reviewing factors including plant performance and PVC costs, it plans to temporarily halt its chlor-alkali line. It will also temporarily shut some calcium carbide units and the No. 2 thermal power unit at its captive power plant. Trump said he has urged officials to approve a ban on diesel exports, citing surging diesel prices driven by the Iran conflict and the Ukraine situation. Metals LME positioning data for the week ended September 18, 2026 show funds' net longs in copper at 39,800 lots (-827 w/w), aluminum at 144,100 (-3,542), zinc at 53,800 (-5,383), nickel at 13,400 (-2,899), tin at 1,920 (-512), and a net short in lead at 25,100 (-642). SMM research says RKEF nickel pig iron plants at Indonesia's IMIP park began cutting output today, with some lines running at about 30%40% of normal capacity. Market sources attribute the move to reduced rainfall linked to El Niño, limiting water supply for equipment cooling and protection. If current rates persist for another half-month, high-nickel pig iron output could be reduced by roughly 50,000 to 70,000 metric tons. Commonwealth Bank of Australia commodities analyst Vivek Dhar said higher aluminum output in China and Europe is not enough to eliminate the global market deficit this year. He expects the market to swing to a surplus by 2027 as supply rises in India and Indonesia and Middle East supply recovers. Market views EG: Supply-demand fundamentals weakened, sending EG futures down 3%. Hua Wen Futures said the contract is correcting after a high-level rally as the market prices in marginal supply recovery and unwinds earlier gains. Low port inventories and limited imports still offer support, but near-term upside momentum has faded. Key watch points include whether port inventories stop falling, whether import arrivals recover, and whether strong EO margins shift EG allocations at co-production units. Copper: After a sharp pullback, copper has returned to elevated levels. China Everbright Futures said persistently low inventories, tight spot supply, and rising expectations of U.S. import tariffs have supported prices, with sentiment further helped by optimism around China-U.S. talks. Prices may remain range-bound at high levels while testing prior highs, but risks include profit-taking and dollar volatility. Downstream demand remains focused on essential purchases with limited appetite for restocking at current prices. The widening COMEX-LME spread underscores uncertainty around potential U.S. tariffs on refined copper imports; any policy outcome that disappoints expectations could have an outsized impact. Key data and events September 23, 22:30: U.S. EIA weekly crude oil inventory report. September 24 (TBA): Mysteel weekly production and inventory data for five major steel products. September 24, 20:30: USDA weekly export sales report.