ICE Starts London Gold Futures Trading; EIA Lifts 2026–2027 Oil Price Outlook

Good morning. Today is Wednesday, October 7, 2026. Here's your Futures Morning Rush market brief. Top headlines 1) Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has launched gold futures trading in London. 2) Chinese-backed nickel pig iron smelter MSS in Indonesia is facing a court-registered debt repayment suspension (PKPU) application. 3) U.S. Central Command rejected Iranian state media claims that a U.S. Navy MH60R helicopter crashed in the Red Sea. 4) Registered sugarcane planting in India's Solapur region fell by 32,948 hectares. 5) Kpler data show average daily crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz over the past seven days were 10.3 million barrels, about 76% of the pre-war baseline. Macro - Indonesia's Mount Semeru in East Java erupted at 5:29 a.m. local time on the 6th, sending an ash plume about 900 meters high. The eruption lasted 135 seconds, with dense gray ash drifting northeast. Activity has been frequent this year. - U.S. Central Command said reports of an MH60R helicopter crash in the Red Sea after an emergency declaration are false. It said all U.S. aircraft and personnel in the Middle East are safe and accounted for. - United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) said U.S. sanctions have left dozens of oil tankers stranded off Iran's coast, with others anchored near Sri Lanka outside the Persian Gulf. - Israel's Defense Minister Katz said intelligence suggests Hamas plans an attack on the 7th, the third anniversary of the latest round of the Israel–Palestinian conflict, and instructed the military to raise readiness to the highest level. Global futures moves - Energy: Front-month U.S. crude settled up 0.54% at $89.91/bbl; front-month Brent rose 0.76% to $101.08/bbl. API reported a 2.1 million-barrel crude draw, larger than expected. Middle East tensions, a tanker fire disrupting Black Sea shipments, and attacks on Russian refineries that halted processing added to supply worries. The EIA sharply raised its Brent outlook for this year and next. Analysts noted global oil inventories remain extremely tight. - Precious metals: COMEX gold gained 0.86% to $4,192.70/oz; COMEX silver rose 0.65% to $61.70/oz. Cooling expectations for further Fed rate hikes and pricing that favors a steady policy rate supported metals, though positioning remains mixed. - Base metals (LME): Zinc +0.77% to $3,772.5/ton; aluminum +0.53% to $3,143.5/ton; copper -0.08% to $14,409.0/ton; lead -0.21% to $1,871.5/ton; nickel -0.28% to $15,670.0/ton; tin -0.33% to $54,135.0/ton. Industry and commodity updates Coal & steel - Pakistan launched Phase III of the Thar Coal Block II project on October 5, lifting annual capacity from 7.6 million tons to 11.2 million tons. Sindh Governor Murad Ali Shah said the additional 3.6 million tons per year will allow Lucky Electric Power Company's 660 MW plant to fully replace imported coal with Thar coal, saving about $220 million in foreign exchange each year. - At IFQM 2026, TATA Steel CEO and Managing Director TV Narendran said the company plans to invest about INR 400 billion to add roughly 5 million tonnes per year of capacity at Neelachal Ispat Nigam Ltd (NINL) in Kalinganagar, Odisha, focusing on long products. Agriculture - IMEA said Mato Grosso soybean crushing margins for Sep 28–Oct 2 were R$456.71/ton, up from R$441.17/ton the prior week. - Solapur sugarcane: registered cane area is down 32,948 hectares. Cane available for crushing in the new season totals 227,052 hectares versus 260,000 hectares last year, a decline of about 12.7%. - SPPOMA reported Malaysia's palm oil performance from October 15, 2026: yield -5.02% m/m, extraction rate -0.18% m/m, production -5.97% m/m. - Abiove said Brazil's soybean crushing capacity is expected to rise 13% this year to 86.4 million tons per year, driven by strong demand for soybean oil and meal. Abiove projects 2026 crush at 63.5 million tons. Energy & chemicals - Vietnam is pushing LNG to meet fast-growing power demand, but timelines are slipping: only 1 of 18 LNG power projects is expected to be completed on schedule. - Despite South Korea saying participation in Alaska's natural gas project depends on commercial viability—after which President Trump threatened trade retaliation—U.S. Vice President Vance said the project will proceed. - Kpler: as of Saturday, seven-day average crude throughput via the Strait of Hormuz was 10.3 million bpd (76% of the pre-war baseline). Refined products such as gasoline and diesel were about 1.3 million bpd, around 11% of total flows, with the balance unrefined crude. - GasBuddy analyst Patrick DeHaan said Trump's executive order easing restrictions on tax-exempt red diesel offers limited benefit to most drivers because most states still ban its use on public roads; the measure may only defer tax payment and does not increase diesel supply. - The World Bank's East Asia and Pacific Economic Outlook said the region has responded to the U.S.–Iran war-driven energy price surge with heavier use of subsidies, a strategy it warned may be "unsustainable." It projects Middle East oil exports will not return to pre-conflict levels until mid-2027. - Mobility Global data cited by China Fund News show pure gasoline vehicles accounted for 49% of global new car sales in 1H 2026, the first time the share has fallen below 50%, down from 73% in 2021. - EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook: WTI 2026 forecast lifted to $88.21/bbl from $84.65; WTI 2027 to $79.74 from $69.74. Brent 2026 raised to $96.32 from $91.01; Brent 2027 to $83.74 from $73.74. Metals - SMM: MSS, a Chinese-funded nickel smelter in Morowali, Central Sulawesi, is facing a PKPU filing submitted by nickel miner PT Mineral Maju Sejahtera. The case was registered on September 29 at the Central Commercial Court in Jakarta, with the first hearing set for October 8. MSS operates eight RKEF furnaces and targets around 600,000 tons of nickel iron output annually. No confirmed information indicates production has stopped. - SMM: Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) said the first bauxite shipment from Guinea is en route to the UAE under a renewed agreement. About 66,000 tons were loaded in late August onto a Panamax vessel at Guinea's Kamsar port. - Financial Times: ICE has started offering gold futures in London, aiming to expand precious metals derivatives in the world's key physical gold hub. The exchange this week introduced contracts linked to London's daily auction price, and also rolled out contracts for silver, platinum, and palladium. Key events to watch - October 7, 22:30: U.S. EIA weekly crude and refined products inventory report. - TBC, October 8: China East China port methanol inventories as of October 8. - October 8, 2:00: Federal Reserve minutes from the September policy meeting.