Goldman Sachs: Leverage in ETFs Is Fueling Volatility; Semiconductor Upswing Not Yet at Its Peak
AI Market Summary
Goldman attributes the sharp tech-stock swings to liquidity-driven deleveraging from highly leveraged ETFs rather than worsening fundamentals, highlighting structural fragility as U.S. margin debt has surged. Forced ETF unwinds amplified selling pressure in Korean equities, a near-term volatility risk. However, Goldman maintains a constructive semiconductor view with stable earnings expectations and a prolonged memory tightness outlook, framing the move as position cleanup.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCSIKOSPI2USD/USDT-3.18%
AI Insight · NCSIKOSPI2USD/USDTAI Insight
● Neutral
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Goldman Sachs said the latest bout of sharp volatility across global technology shares reflects a liquidity-driven "deleveraging" shock rather than a deterioration in fundamentals, according to Jin10 Data. Two-times leveraged ETFs tied to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix plunged more than 30% in a single session, triggering forced selling that intensified the decline. The bank estimated that about 62% of Korean institutional net selling was linked to the unwinding of these leveraged ETF positions.
In the U.S. equity market, margin debt rose 54% in the 12 months through May, reaching the 10th percentile of historical levels, highlighting structural fragilities beneath risk appetite.
Goldman Sachs remains constructive on semiconductors. It noted that earnings expectations for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have not been revised lower, and it expects memory-chip supply tightness to persist until the second half of 2028. The bank characterized the pullback as a "position cleanup" rather than the start of an industry-wide downturn.
On the technical front, Goldman Sachs flagged 6,800 on the KOSPI as a key support level. In a more extreme move, it sees 6,000–6,100 as a strong support zone.
