Goldman Sachs warns Brent could top $120 in Q4 if Hormuz disruption persists
AI Market Summary
Goldman Sachs flagged a tail-risk scenario where sustained Strait of Hormuz disruption and reduced Persian Gulf shipping flows could push Brent above $120/bbl in Q4, while stressing its baseline remains de-escalation with $80/bbl in Q4 and $75 next year. With risks "biased to the upside" amid potential Hormuz and Red Sea disruptions, near-term crude risk premia and energy volatility may stay elevated.
Impact level
● High
Affected assets
NCCO1OILBRENT2USD/USDT+2.66%
AI Insight · NCCO1OILBRENT2USD/USDTAI Insight
▲ Bullish
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Goldman Sachs said in a July 21 (UTC+8) report that Brent crude could climb above $120 a barrel in the fourth quarter if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue, while stressing this is not its base case.
The bank said an escalation in the Middle East and an estimated drop in Persian Gulf shipping flows to below 45% of prewar levels have driven oil prices higher.
Under its current baseline assumption that regional tensions ease, Goldman forecasts Brent at $80 a barrel in Q4 and $75 next year. Analysts added that with potential shipping disruptions spanning both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, risks to the oil price outlook remain "biased to the upside." (Source: ODAILY)
