Bitcoin Supply Shifts From Long-Term Holders to New Buyers as Price Stays Rangebound

Bitcoin is down about 50% from its October 2025 all-time high near $124,000. The cryptocurrency is trading around $62,000 and has spent the past five months stuck in a tight $60,000–$80,000 range, fueling broad market apathy. One closely watched on-chain indicator points to a potential inflection. Glassnode’s RHODL Ratio—which compares the "wealth" held by long-term holders versus newer participants—climbed to 6.5 in early July, the second-highest level on record. The ratio has since started to fall and is now below 6. Notably, the compression is happening while price remains stagnant rather than breaking down. In 2022, the RHODL Ratio rolled over alongside a sharp selloff, with the collapse of FTX pushing Bitcoin to roughly $15,000. The setup in 2026 is different: Bitcoin continues to trade near $60,000, and coins appear to be changing hands without clear signs of panic. The data suggests a gradual handoff of supply from long-term holders—many of whom accumulated through 2023 and 2024—to a newer wave of buyers viewing current levels as a discount. The same pattern can also be framed as distribution under Wyckoff’s model, in which informed sellers unload into overly eager demand. The distribution phase typically occurs around the start to the middle of a bear market before giving way to accumulation. Historically, extended consolidations near the 2015, 2019, and 2023 lows preceded meaningful recoveries, and in each episode the RHODL Ratio compressed before price eventually broke higher. Bitcoin has now logged five months of tight consolidation without the capitulation event many investors continue to anticipate. A Federal Reserve rate hike could still serve as a catalyst for fresh lows, with markets currently pricing in 50 basis points of tightening over the next six months.