Galaxy Cuts Odds of CLARITY Act Becoming Law by 2026 to 50%

Galaxy Digital has trimmed its estimate for the U.S. CLARITY Act becoming law by 2026 to 50%, down from 60%, according to CoinDesk. In a research note, Galaxy research director Alex Thorn said the main headwind is not the substance of the legislation, but the Senate calendar: limited time ahead of the August recess and a lack of clear public signals of support. Thorn pointed to the absence of a publicly available unified Senate draft, as well as no scheduled debates or votes, as signs that momentum remains insufficient. Senate Banking and Agriculture Committee staff have been working to align their versions, but a final merged text has yet to be released. Market pricing reflects the softer outlook: Polymarket traders currently put the probability of the bill being signed into law in 2026 at about 41%. July floor time becomes pivotal The Senate is adjourned until July 13, further compressing the window for legislative action before the August break. Galaxy said floor time is tight not only because of the shortened schedule, but also because other priorities are competing for votes. Thorn noted that President Trump has linked his support for a bipartisan housing bill to the SAVE Act. Lawmakers also face deadlines around FISA-related legislation and the annual defense authorization bill. Against that backdrop, Galaxy said the ability to secure floor time for the crypto market structure package becomes a key swing factor. Galaxy added that the outlook could improve if Senate leadership follows through on a July commitment to put the bill on the floor and publishes the final unified text. Thorn said visible progress within the next two weeks could lift Galaxy's probability estimate back to 60% or higher. Policy gaps still unresolved Beyond technical drafting work, Galaxy said policy disputes remain. Ethical provisions continue to be a sticking point among lawmakers. Separately, law enforcement agencies have pressed for changes to developer-protection language in the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act. Earlier this week, the U.S. Department of Justice responded to concerns raised by four national law enforcement organizations, saying the CLARITY Act would not weaken prosecutors' ability to investigate digital asset crimes. In a joint June 23 letter, the groups argued that Section 604 and related exemptions could create regulatory gaps that criminals might exploit. Sen. Cynthia Lummis has said the Senate is expected to release the final text for public review around July 4 and aims to move it to full-chamber consideration later in July. If the Senate version changes language already passed by the House, the two chambers would need to reconcile differences before the bill could be sent to the President for signature.