Fed dot plot: 16 FOMC officials see another rate hike this year; inflation outlook nudged higher for 2026–2028

BlockBeats reported that on Sept. 17 the Federal Reserve released updated economic projections, raising the median PCE inflation outlook for 2026–2028 to 3.7%, 2.3% and 2.1%, compared with June's 3.6%, 2.3% and 2.0%. The median projections for core PCE inflation were 3.4%, 2.5% and 2.2%. On the labor market, the median unemployment rate forecast for 2026 through 2028 was 4.1% in each year, below the June projections of 4.3%, 4.3% and 4.2%. Median GDP growth forecasts were revised to 2.3%, 2.4% and 2.2% for 2026–2028, versus 2.2%, 2.3% and 2.2% previously. For 2029, the median projections call for 2.1% GDP growth and a 4.1% unemployment rate. The Fed's latest dot plot showed that 18 of 19 officials submitted rate-path projections, unchanged from June, with 16 signaling another rate hike this year. Looking out to 2026, four officials projected cumulative tightening of 75 basis points (up from one in June), 12 projected 50 basis points (up from five), and two projected 25 basis points (down from three). No officials projected leaving rates unchanged at 3.5%3.75% this year (down from eight in June), and none projected a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut (down from one).