Strategy Unveils New Capital Plan; Bitcoin Accumulation Rules Still Unspecified

CryptoQuant said Strategy’s newly introduced capital management framework has eased near-term liquidity pressure, though the firm still lacks a disciplined, rules-based approach for buying and selling Bitcoin. In a report, CryptoQuant research director Julio Moreno described the company’s new "Digital Credit Capital Framework" as a meaningful shift in direction. He said the plan amounts to a course correction, but argued two gaps remain: a systematic model for when to resume Bitcoin purchases and a clear, disciplined framework for selling into bull markets. Strategy announced the five-part framework on June 29. The company created a U.S. dollar reserve restricted to paying preferred stock dividends and interest, with a target to cover at least 12 months of obligations. It also raised the dividend rate on STRC preferred shares to 12%, subject to monthly review, aiming to bring STRC closer to its $100 par value. The plan authorizes repurchases of up to $1 billion in preferred shares if management deems buybacks value-enhancing, with STRC slated for first priority. Strategy can also repurchase up to $1 billion of MSTR common stock when it believes the shares are undervalued. Separately, a Bitcoin cash-out program allows Strategy to sell up to $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin. Proceeds may be used to bolster dollar reserves, fund dividend and interest payments, and finance share buybacks. Strategy also said it will be more cautious with equity issuance when its mNAV indicator (market value/net asset value ratio) approaches 1. The announcement came days after CryptoQuant published recommendations urging Strategy to pause Bitcoin purchases until cash reserves and dividend coverage improved, develop a systematic timing model for future accumulation, and prepare a plan to sell part of its holdings during bull markets. Moreno said Strategy has largely implemented the first recommendation. Between June 29 and July 5, the company sold about 3,588 BTC, generating roughly $216 million, which it used to pay preferred dividends and strengthen the dollar reserve. Strategy then raised $466.7 million by selling MSTR shares from July 6 to 12. No Bitcoin purchases or sales were made during that period. Following these steps, Strategy’s dollar reserves rose from $1.44 billion to $3 billion. Dividend coverage extended from about 14 months to 29 months. Bitcoin holdings remained at 843,775 BTC, and the company has not executed any preferred or common-share buybacks. STRC fell to a record low near $75 in late June, then climbed to about $88 after the framework announcement and the dividend increase. Even so, the stock continues to trade below its $100 par value. Moreno said the discount suggests investors want evidence the company can sustain the new financial discipline. He added that the market appears to be waiting for reserves to remain strengthened and for the new approach to be maintained before fully repricing the security. CryptoQuant said two key questions still hang over Strategy’s Bitcoin strategy. First: when will the company resume accumulating Bitcoin? Moreno said pausing purchases addressed short-term liquidity, but the new framework does not provide a model-driven rule for restarting. While the mNAV-linked equity issuance policy outlines how capital may be raised, it does not indicate when that capital should be deployed into Bitcoin. Moreno warned that without a valuation-focused framework, the company risks reverting to buying during local price peaks when market conditions improve. Second: will Strategy sell Bitcoin in the next bull market, and under what rules? Moreno said the current Bitcoin cash-out program is structured defensively, enabling sales to fund dividends, interest and buybacks. CryptoQuant said it does not define a plan for staged selling or hedging as the cycle nears a peak. Moreno argued that a disciplined selling framework could reduce debt, support shareholder value, and rebuild cash reserves to repurchase Bitcoin during drawdowns. He said the other half of active capital management—systematic selling through the cycle—remains undefined. This is not investment advice.