Copper Crunch Intensifies: IEA Flags Sulfuric Acid Shortage, Output Losses, and a 25% Supply Gap by 2035
AI Market Summary
IEA's critical minerals outlook flags a severe sulfuric acid shortage driven by Hormuz disruption and a year-long China export ban, constraining acid-leach copper output in DRC and Chile (~2.7Mt). Reported 2025 cuts of ~1.5Mt (~6% of global supply) highlight an acute structural supply shock. With the IEA still projecting a ~25% copper deficit by 2035, near-term copper risk premia and volatility may stay elevated.
Impact level
● High
Affected assets
NCCO724COPPER2USD/USDT+0.77%
AI Insight · NCCO724COPPER2USD/USDTAI Insight
▲ Bullish
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The International Energy Agency (IEA), in its "2026 Global Critical Minerals Outlook", warns that a severe global shortage of sulfuric acid is emerging after two simultaneous shocks: an effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and China's year-long ban on sulfuric acid exports. The IEA says the shortfall puts about 2.7 million tonnes of solvent-extraction and acid-leach copper output in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Chile at risk. Copper production was already cut by 1.5 million tonnes in 2025, around 6% of global supply, helping drive prices above $14,000 per tonne in May 2026. Looking ahead, the IEA still sees a 25% copper supply deficit in 2035, describing the situation as a major structural supply shock for both spot and futures markets.
