CME FedWatch: Markets price 85.6% odds of Fed holding rates steady in July
AI Market Summary
CME FedWatch implies a high probability (85.6%) of a July hold, while September pricing leans toward a 25 bp cumulative hike (51.2%), keeping policy uncertainty concentrated in late summer. A near-term pause typically dampens immediate rates volatility, but the still-meaningful hike odds sustain sensitivity across USD rates and risk assets. The curve's repricing risk remains tied to incoming inflation and labor data.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCSIDXY2USD/USDT-0.01%
AI Insight · NCSIDXY2USD/USDTAI Insight
● Neutral
Trade now
⚠️ AI-generated insights are based on news content and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice or represent the views of BingX. Investing involves risk. Please trade responsibly.
CME's FedWatch tool shows markets assigning an 85.6% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its July meeting. The odds of a cumulative 25-basis-point increase stand at 14.4%.
For September, FedWatch indicates a 41.4% chance of rates remaining unchanged. Markets see a 51.2% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike and a 7.5% probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike by then.
