Trump May Unveil New Tariffs for Dozens of Countries This Week; China's State Cotton Auction Clears 100%

Wednesday, July 22, 2026 — Futures Morning Rush Top stories 1) Financial Times: U.S. President Donald Trump may announce fresh tariffs on dozens of countries as soon as this week. 2) China National Cotton Reserve Information Center: On July 21, China National Cotton Reserve Management Co., Ltd. planned to auction 8,045.4550 tons of reserve cotton and sold 8,045.4550 tons, posting a 100% clearance rate. 3) BHP and the union representing workers at Port Hedland, Western Australia, said Tuesday they are close to reaching an agreement. 4) Shagang (Sha Steel) released ex-factory prices for the second half of July on July 21, cutting rebar and wire rod by 100 each. 5) Indonesia's Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs said full implementation of the B50 biodiesel mandate will not reduce the country's total palm oil exports. Macro and geopolitics 1) Indonesian President Prabowo said Indonesia will fully implement a strategic commodities export single-window system by September 1, 2026. 2) Kpler: Four bulk carriers transited the strait on Monday, mainly on Iran-related routes, down from seven the prior day. 3) Fox News: Senior U.S. officials said Trump is expected to decide in the coming days whether to broaden military action against Iran and resume full-scale combat. 4) The Jerusalem Post: Sources familiar with the talks said Iran first proposed the 10-day ceasefire initiative now being advanced by mediators between the U.S. and Iran. 5) Financial Times: Trump could impose new tariffs on dozens of countries as early as this week. 6) China Securities Regulatory Commission held multiple symposiums with listed firms, industry institutions and experts. Participants said China's economy is trending steadily toward innovation and higher quality, and that the capital market ecosystem has changed markedly since the rollout of the new "Nine Measures for the Capital Market." 7) U.S. ADP weekly employment change through July 4: 16,500 vs 197,500 previously. 8) Trump: "Iran wants to meet, but we have no interest." He said he has no interest in meeting until Iran is ready. 9) Iran's Supreme Joint Military Command warned that if the U.S. attacks Iran's nuclear facilities, U.S. and allied interests in the region will become targets. 10) Trump said Tuesday the U.S. would "deal with" any Houthi attempt to block Saudi shipping and energy exports, noting the U.S. has acted against the Houthis before. Markets: futures and key moves 1) China domestic futures (Tuesday 23:00 close): Broadly higher. Fuel oil up nearly 4%; low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) up over 2%; coking coal up nearly 2%; PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol (EG), bottle resin and synthetic rubber up over 1%. Decliners included soda ash, caustic soda and rapeseed oil (down over 1%); soybean oil down nearly 1%. 2) Energy: WTI main contract +2.5% to $84.54/bbl; Brent main contract +2.71% to $91.64/bbl. 3) Precious metals: COMEX gold +1.65% to $4,082.20/oz; COMEX silver +3.50% to $59.07/oz. 4) LME base metals: Tin +2.32% to $54,105.0/ton; copper +2.08% to $13,905.5/ton; nickel +1.01% to $17,100.0/ton; zinc +0.80% to $3,548.0/ton; aluminum +0.68% to $3,161.5/ton; lead -0.59% to $1,868.0/ton. Ferrous and industrials 1) Mysteel: Iron ore inventories at seven major Australian and Brazilian ports totaled 14.997 million tons for July 13–19, up 798,000 tons week on week, reaching the year's high. 2) Shanxi Province is set to release the "Seventeen New Regulations on Coordinating Coal Industry Development and Safety." The draft aims to eliminate hidden working faces, ban coal enterprises from using (directly or indirectly) underground labor-dispatch workers, conduct regular rectification of illegal "four chains," strengthen local coal safety supervision institutions, and reform the dispatch system for coal safety supervisors. 3) BHP and the Port Hedland union said they are close to a deal. 4) Mysteel: Qinghai Fuxin Silicon Industry Co., Ltd. completed the ignition ceremony for its first upgraded 33,000 kVA electric arc furnace, which started operations today. Ferrosilicon output is expected to rise by 85–90 tons/day. 5) SMM: Shagang's late-July ex-factory pricing (effective July 21, 2026, tax included) cut rebar and wire rod by 100. Prices: rebar 3300; coiled rod 3330; highline wire 3240. Agriculture 1) National Grain and Oil Information Center: Crushers are expected to keep high run rates in the last two weeks of July, with weekly soybean crush above 2.2 million tons, accelerating the build in soybean meal inventories. By month-end, meal inventories may reach about 1 million tons, up roughly 300,000 tons month on month, roughly flat year on year, and about 100,000 tons below the three-year average for the period. 2) USDA Weekly Crush Report-based estimate: U.S. soybean crush margin for the week ending July 17, 2026 was $4.37/bushel, down 5.41% week on week. 3) Indonesia said B50 implementation will not reduce total palm oil exports. 4) China reserve cotton auction (July 21): 8,045.4550 tons planned and sold; 100%成交. 5) China nationwide soybean oil port inventories as of July 21: 976,000 metric tons vs 929,000 metric tons on July 14, up 47,000 metric tons. Energy and chemicals 1) Jinlianchuang: New polypropylene capacity scheduled for the second half of 2026 is expected to total 4.6 million tons, pointing to a sustained rise in supply. 2) Goldman Sachs: If instability in the Strait of Hormuz persists, Brent could exceed $120/bbl in Q4 2026. 3) Kazakhstan Ministry of Energy: Tengizchevroil plans to produce up to 40 million tons of oil in 2026. 4) IEA: Since March 11, member countries have released about 290 million barrels of oil. Members still hold substantial emergency stocks, including more than 1 billion barrels of government-controlled reserves. 5) Market talk: Kazakhstan will halt oil shipments to the Black Sea after the tanker attack. 6) JODI: Saudi crude output rose 244,000 bpd month on month in May to 6.56 million bpd. Crude exports fell 552,000 bpd to 3.434 million bpd. Crude inventories rose 2.827 million barrels to 142.794 million barrels. 7) Statistics New Zealand: June log exports were 1,793,713 cubic meters; 1,457,028 cubic meters went to China (81%). 8) Iraq's oil minister: Agreements expected to be signed with U.S. companies during the prime minister's visit could total $200 billion. Metals 1) SMM: A lead-zinc mine in northern China will undergo routine maintenance for 10–15 days in August, expected to affect more than one-third of output. 2) Customs: China's lithium hydroxide imports in June 2026 were 4,400 metric tons, up 12% month on month and nearly double year on year. 3) SMM: China's spodumene imports in June 2026 were 768,000 metric tons, up 13% month on month and 33% year on year, equivalent to about 72,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate (LCE). 4) Securities Times: A Ministry of Industry and Information Technology working group on lithium batteries and related products will convene to discuss 10 industry standards for solid-state lithium batteries. 5) Prediction market platform Kalshi applied to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to launch a perpetual futures contract linked to gold. 6) Zimbabwe's state-owned rail operator NRZ said it can now work with private operators to ship lithium concentrate by rail to Mozambique's Port of Maputo, expanding export logistics options. Research notes: trading logic and key themes 1) Copper: Port access restrictions in parts of central Chile are expected to keep the global copper concentrate market tight. A Foshan Financial Holding Futures note said concentrate shortages are intensifying, TC rates are at their lowest in nearly five years, and the refined vs scrap copper spread remains elevated, weighing on refined copper rod demand. With electrolytic copper social inventories still falling, prices may stay rangebound at high levels in the near term. The note also flagged potential opportunities in Shanghai copper calendar spreads after earlier spot tightness in eastern China linked to pre-typhoon stocking. 2) Coking coal and coke: Sanli Futures said coal and coke sold off during the night session and morning (both down more than 2%), then rebounded after headlines that Shanxi will issue the "Seventeen New Regulations" on coal industry development and safety. The main coke contract finished slightly higher at RMB 1,275/ton. The firm said supply-side constraints may persist as mine recovery remains slow, while weaker downstream buying has reduced procurement by independent coke plants and steel mills. Inventories are falling downstream but building upstream, and the supply-demand feedback loop has not fundamentally shifted. The near-term view is sideways trading in coal and coke, with supply impacts worth monitoring. Upcoming data and events 1) U.S. EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending July 17: release at 22:30 UTC on July 22. 2) China steel rebar weekly production and inventory report: 14:00 China time on July 23. 3) China East China port methanol inventory: as of July 23. 4) U.S. export net sales report for the week ending July 16: release at 20:30 UTC on July 23.