China's Steel Association Urges Industry Self-Restraint, Output Curbs and Destocking

Market Brief | Wed, Sept. 16, 2026 Top headlines 1) China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said continued industrial restructuring, the buildup of "new quality productive forces," and broader efforts to tackle "inward-looking" competition are expected to lend support to industrial product prices. 2) China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Iranian Foreign Minister Alireza Alaghzadeh will visit China on Sept. 16 and meet Wang Yi, Politburo member and foreign minister. 3) Shanxi's energy regulator said a Sept. 13 meeting was held to push forward coal supply for power generation in order to secure supply and stabilize prices. 4) BHP and Australia's port union said workers have formally rejected BHP's proposal. 5) The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) issued an initiative urging the steel sector to voluntarily curb production and reduce inventories. 6) Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine struck a refinery in Syzran, Russia. 7) Reuters cited three trade sources as saying Saudi Arabia has notified some European refiners that September crude shipments have been canceled after the east-west oil pipeline was shut. Macro - NBS reiterated that industrial restructuring and measures aimed at reducing "inward-looking" competition should help support industrial product prices. - Pentagon officials told the Department of Defense's independent oversight agency that during the early months of Operation Epic Fury, U.S. strikes on Iranian targets consumed so much ammunition that they "depleted strategic stockpiles" and exposed bottlenecks in resupply. - China's Foreign Ministry confirmed the Sept. 16 China visit by Iran's foreign minister and talks with Wang Yi. - Russia's Defense Ministry said Russian forces used drones early on the 15th to strike Ukrainian logistics hubs, ports and vessels. - NBS data showed China's value-added industrial output for above-designated-size enterprises rose 5.2% y/y in August, up 0.7 percentage point from July. - Reuters reported the UN Security Council will convene an emergency meeting Tuesday on rising tensions in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait; an emergency meeting was also held on Sept. 15 local time. - U.S. ADP weekly change through Aug. 29 was 16,250 versus a prior 12,000. - Axios reported that senior military commanders from the U.S., Israel and several Arab countries met in Germany last week to discuss a potential war with Iran and wider regional tensions, citing two Israeli officials. Overnight markets - China's night-session major futures mostly advanced: Ethylene glycol (EG) +4%+; PET chips, short fiber and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) +3%+; paraxylene nearly +3%; asphalt, methanol and styrene (EB) +2%+. Decliners included PVC -2%+; glass, coking coal, coke and cotton yarn -1%+; synthetic rubber and soda ash down nearly 1%. - COMEX: gold -0.43% to $4,333.40/oz; silver +0.07% to $64.19/oz. - Crude: WTI +4.03% to $105.48/bbl; Brent +2.65% to $108.48/bbl. - LME base metals mostly higher: zinc +1.00% to $3,831.5/t; copper +0.81% to $14,114.5/t; tin +0.40% to $52,085.0/t; aluminum +0.25% to $3,252.5/t; lead -0.32% to $1,875.5/t; nickel -2.41% to $15,940.0/t. Ferrous (steel/coal) - Mysteel: HBIS's September 2026 silicomanganese tender set at CNY 6,050/t, up from CNY 5,880/t in August; initial inquiry was CNY 6,000/t. - NBS: The decline in raw coal output narrowed. August output from large-scale miners was 360 million tons, down 7.7% y/y, with the decline narrowing by 2.4 percentage points from July. - Shanxi Energy Bureau: Sept. 13 meeting held to promote coal supply for power generation and stabilize prices. - Pilbara Ports Authority: Port Hedland iron ore exports in August were 46.6046 million tons vs 44.225 million tons in July; shipments to China were 38.0006 million tons vs 37.8565 million tons. - BHP/union: workers formally rejected BHP's proposal. - Mysteel survey: construction firms' actual steel procurement in August 2026 was 6.46 million tons, up 1.9% m/m but 60,000 tons below plan. For September, planned procurement is 6.98 million tons, with actual volumes expected to rise about 6% m/m. - CISA initiative: urges strict implementation of production controls, self-disciplined output cuts and inventory management, and fuller use of the industry price-monitoring team. Agriculture - Xinhua cited FAO's Russia liaison head Oleg Kobyakov as saying any disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could reduce global food production and supply in H2 2026 and in 2027. - AmSpec: Malaysia palm oil exports Sept. 1–15 totaled 496,160 tons, down 26% from 667,257 tons in the same period last month. - ITS: Malaysia palm oil exports Sept. 1–15 were 560,292 tons, down 17.76% from 681,266 tons a month earlier. - MPOB raised October crude palm oil reference price to RM4,452.66/t; export duty unchanged at 10%. - India's SEA: August palm oil imports rose 7% m/m to 782,761 metric tons; soybean oil imports +26% to 628,736 tons; sunflower oil imports -36% to 160,639 tons. - CONAB (Sept. forecast): Brazil 2025/26 corn output seen at 144.01 million metric tons (+2.0% y/y; +0.7% m/m). 2025/26 soybeans seen at 180.4066 million metric tons (+5.2% y/y). - IBGE (Sept. report): Brazil 2026 corn output forecast at 141.83 million metric tons (vs 141.794 million last month; +0.1% y/y). Soybeans forecast at 174.773 million metric tons (down 0.1% m/m; +5.3% y/y). - China's nationwide port soybean oil inventory was 1.003 million metric tons as of Sept. 15, up from 994,000 tons on Sept. 8. - NOPA: U.S. soybean oil stocks in August were 1.201 billion pounds (vs 1.257 billion expected; 1.36 billion in July). August crush was 205.456 million bushels (vs 211.553 million expected; 216.647 million in July). - ANEC: Brazil's September soybean exports expected at 8.32 million metric tons (vs 7.74 million previously); corn exports seen at 5.74 million metric tons (vs 5.20 million). Energy & chemicals - NBS: China flat glass production in August 2026 was 75 million weight boxes, down 7.6% y/y; Jan–Aug output was 594.42 million weight boxes, down 6.4% y/y. - NBS: China crude output in August was 18.43 million tons, up 0.8% y/y; daily average 5.95 million tons. - Libya's oil and gas minister said Libya aims to lift natural gas output to 4 billion standard cubic feet per day over the next three to five years. - Zelensky said Ukraine attacked a refinery in Syzran, Russia. - Reuters: following the east-west pipeline shutdown, Saudi Arabia told some European refiners that September crude cargoes were canceled. - Libya's National Oil Corporation said three oil fields halted production after a unit of the Oil Facilities Guard closed valves on the Hamada–Zawiya pipeline on Tuesday. Metals - A nickel producer said the Excelsior nickel-cobalt plant in Sulawesi is expected to run at 30% of nameplate capacity during current water supply restrictions. - Pilbara Ports Authority: Port Hedland exported 235,445.00 tons of spodumene concentrate in August vs 104,155.00 tons in July; exports to China were 203,045.00 tons. - Indonesia's commodity trading regulator said the planned exchange will open Jan. 4 next year, initially listing tin and nickel pig iron; state-owned miners will be among the first participants. - Bernstein (Sept. 15): called nickel the least marketized metal and said Indonesian policy will cap upside. It cut its long-term nickel forecast to $19,000/t, seeing averages of $17,282/t in 2026 and $18,000/t in 2027, and $19,000/t from 2028–2030. - SMM: technical upgrades at mid-sized primary lead smelters in central China are progressing slower than planned; completion is unlikely before end-September, with output resuming no earlier than October. - SMM: the COMEX-LME copper spread has narrowed; the spread between COMEX Cu2610 and LME 3M turned negative, indicating a weaker U.S. pull on copper. - LME positions (week to Sept. 11, 2026): funds' net long copper 40,600 contracts (-5,235 w/w); aluminum 147,600 (-2,480); zinc 59,100 (-3,519). - DRC Ministry of Mines: copper exports rose 4.5% in H1 2026 to a record 1.72 million tons; sales to the U.S. and Europe doubled their share versus 2025 under a diversification drive. Research & trading themes - Guangfa Futures: Butadiene fundamentals weakened, driving BR sharply lower on Sept. 15. While geopolitical risks support crude and naphtha, a near-term restart at Dongming Petrochemical's butadiene unit and softer downstream demand point to weaker butadiene supply-demand. On BR supply, maintenance at Qilu and Tai's facilities plus output cuts at some private plants reduced supply; low inventories remain supportive. Demand remains uneven: large semi-steel tire makers stable; smaller producers weak. Trade frictions, Middle East tensions and Canadian anti-dumping duties continue to restrain demand growth. - Futures Daily: the domestic/international crude spread has widened and several institutions warned of pullback risk after the rally. As of Sept. 15 close, SC2610 settled at RMB 893.8/bbl after briefly approaching RMB 930/bbl; Brent held above $100/bbl. Analysts attributed the surge to spot fundamentals and escalating Middle East supply-chain disruptions, while warning geopolitical premiums are extreme amid weak downstream demand and profit-taking, raising correction risk. Key upcoming data/events - 22:30 (U.S.): EIA weekly crude oil inventories for week ending Sept. 11 - Pending: Japan Petroleum Association (PAJ) weekly crude inventory report - Pending: WBMS global nonferrous metals supply-demand data for July