Crude prices climb as Hormuz traffic falls to three-week low

AI Market Summary
Crude prices are rising as vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz falls to a near three-week low, heightening supply-disruption risk amid elevated regional security and insurance concerns. Increased use of Iran's northern route signals changing shipping behavior, while risks around potential Red Sea disruption add a secondary chokepoint. With inventories low and SPR releases largely exhausted, the market appears more sensitive to further geopolitical escalation.
Impact level
● High
Affected assets
NCCO1OILBRENT2USD/USDT+2.91%
AI Insight · NCCO1OILBRENT2USD/USDTAI Insight
▲ Bullish
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BlockBeats reports that international oil prices extended gains on July 18, with Brent rising to $86.75 and WTI to $82.33, after both had previously dipped to around the $70 level. Shipping data from market intelligence firm Kpler showed weaker activity through the Strait of Hormuz on July 16. The confirmed number of vessels transiting the chokepoint fell to eight, the lowest in nearly three weeks. Seven of the eight ships took the northern corridor along Iran's coastline, underscoring a growing concentration on that route as companies reassess regional security, crew safety and insurance exposure. Crude futures posted a double-digit gain this week. Markets are also factoring in the risk that Yemen's Houthi forces could move to disrupt Red Sea shipping. In a scenario where the Strait of Hormuz is closed, Saudi Arabia has been redirecting crude exports via the Red Sea. Barclays analyst Amarpreet Singh said in a note that with inventories at their lowest levels in years and most strategic petroleum reserve releases already completed, renewed tensions around the strait's "red line" are resurfacing, creating meaningful upside risk for energy prices. He added that the market remains too complacent about the potential impact on inventories.