Bitcoin shows "bearish but not breaking" bottoming signals as geopolitical risks mount

ChainCatcher reports that Wintermute's latest market note says Bitcoin has remained anchored at the key $62,000 support level despite a series of geopolitical shocks, underscoring notable resilience. Last week, as U.S.-Iran talks stalled and tensions escalated, Iran targeted commercial vessels, the U.S. carried out renewed airstrikes, and Tehran announced an indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Energy markets reacted sharply: Brent crude rose 6.3% on the week. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.57%, and markets lifted the implied probability of a September Fed rate hike to about 61%. Attention now turns to this week's U.S. CPI release, expected to be a key input shaping expectations ahead of the July FOMC meeting. In crypto, Bitcoin has held a relatively steady path through successive risk headlines, rebounding from its local low to stay above $62,000 and edging back toward $64,000. Ethereum has been stronger, pushing close to $1,805. Fund flows also improved. The eight-week streak of ETF outflows has ended, with Bitcoin- and Ethereum-related products posting combined net inflows of roughly $282 million last week. While one week of inflows is not enough to confirm a durable reversal, Wintermute notes that the move aligns with continued accumulation by large holders and a muted market response to negative news. Together, these signals point to easing marginal sell pressure and the potential formation of an intermediate bottom. The market's subdued reaction to Strategy's Bitcoin sale was highlighted as a notable shift. Two months ago, the sale of just 32 BTC helped trigger a broader pullback; this time, the impact was limited, suggesting investor anxiety about forced selling has faded. Wintermute characterizes the setup as a "bad news doesn't drop" bottoming pattern, while cautioning that confirmation is still needed. Key swing factors include the CPI print, whether ETF inflows can sustain momentum, and further developments around the Strait of Hormuz. If inflation cools, flows continue improving, and progress is made on the CLARITY Act, Bitcoin could test resistance at $67,250. If oil prices stay elevated and macro pressure builds, the $60,000 support level could come under renewed stress.