Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas Says Bitcoin ETFs May Be Following Gold's Boom-and-Bust Playbook

BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has seen assets retreat to about $60 billion after briefly nearing $100 billion in October, a pattern Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas says resembles the early arc of gold-backed ETFs. In a post on X dated July 17, 2026, Balchunas argued that Bitcoin ETFs share the same core structure as the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD): both are packaged exposure to non-yielding stores of value, offering no cash flow, coupons, or operating earnings. As a result, he said, their performance is driven largely by investor sentiment rather than the fundamentals that typically underpin stocks or bonds. Balchunas pointed to 2011 as a key reference point. That year, GLD temporarily overtook SPY to become the world's largest ETF, then entered an extended stagnation that lasted roughly eight years before recovering its prior highs. Bloomberg data also highlights a common supply-side backdrop: limited growth in the physical supply of both gold and Bitcoin can amplify demand surges. Balchunas noted that these moves tend to arrive in cyclical waves, not as steady, linear adoption. As of Friday, Bitcoin traded near $63,000, down at least 30% in 2026 and about 50% below its October all-time high. Spot gold hovered around $4,000 an ounce, off 7% year to date but still up 19% over the past 12 months. BlackRock's digital assets unit reported this week that its total assets under management fell 40% year over year in the second quarter to $49 billion, compared with $80 billion a year earlier. Flow data suggests selling pressure may be easing. During the most recent full trading week, U.S.-listed Bitcoin and Ether ETFs posted net inflows for the first time since early May, snapping a weeks-long run of outflows.