Elon Musk predicted in an X post that the United States could reach double-digit economic growth by December 2026 at the earliest and even see triple-digit growth around 2030. Some Bitcoin supporters see this as a positive macro backdrop for Bitcoin, while others remain concerned about analyst projections of a Bitcoin bear market and a potential price drop toward the $60,000 range in 2026.

Bitcoin has been trading between $80,000 and $94,000 since a late November correction, with price action stuck mostly in the $84,000-$90,000 band and recently hovering around $87,350. Analysts warn that failure to reclaim the $90,000 resistance could trigger another move toward $84,000, while some expect a decisive test of the current cycle in Q1 2026 with scenarios ranging from a rally toward $100,000 to a drop into the $60,000-$70,000 zone.

On November 14, Galaxy Trading's Beimnet Abebe said BTC defending the 50‑week MA could slip to the 100‑ or 200‑week MA; recently, the 100‑week MA held near $85.5k, aligned with the $84k–$85k demand zone. He would buy below $80k, while CNBC's Anthony Pompliano noted volatility has likely halved and ETF flows were mostly negative after the 10/10 crash.

Analyst Ali Martinez, in a new X thread, says Bitcoin's major cycles have historically taken about 1,064 days from bear-market lows to tops and roughly 364 days from tops to subsequent bottoms, implying a potential bottom around October 2026. He also maps a 70% drawdown scenario to about $37,500, while BTC trades near $87,300, up 0.7% week-on-week.

Bitcoin is trading near $87,370 after losing the $90,000 support level and falling more than 30% from its peak above $126,000, echoing patterns seen in late 2021. One expert applies a 2021-style fractal and argues BTC could decline about 20% toward $70,000, while other analysts debate whether this leads into an extended bear market or a new supercycle with fresh all-time highs projected for 2026.

Recent data shows Asian trading hours have been providing modest support to Bitcoin during price pullbacks, while U.S. and European sessions exert more downside pressure. On-chain indicators point to neutral to mildly distributive behavior, suggesting that current stability reflects selective dip absorption rather than a broad return of long-term accumulation.

At the upcoming year-end expiry, $30.3 billion in Bitcoin options open interest will be settled off BTC's 8:00 am UTC price, with bearish positioning still dominant below $94,000. Most of the $21.7 billion in call options sit at strike prices above $89,000 to $94,000, while over half of the $7.7 billion in puts would expire worthless if Bitcoin trades above $88,000.

On December 22, 2025, Metaplanet shareholders unanimously approved equity measures at an extraordinary meeting to pursue a 210,000 BTC treasury by end-2027. At current prices, the target is about $18.5 billion, supported by new Class A and Class B shares featuring floating rates, quarterly dividends, and buyback mechanisms intended to fund additional Bitcoin acquisitions while deferring immediate dilution.