Bitcoin short sellers have strengthened their positions after a 23% Q4 price drop, while U.S. spot ETF demand and CME Open Interest have fallen to levels last seen in 2024. With basis trade yields dropping from near 10% in early 2025 to around 5%, traders are eyeing possible moves toward $80K on the downside and liquidations near $88K–$90,600 if price spikes.

Bitcoin has traded in a tight $85k–$92k band throughout December, with a record $23.7 billion options expiry scheduled for Friday, 26 December. Analysts expect 5%–7% year-end price swings, with scenarios that include a dip toward $82k–$84k before a potential move toward the $95k max pain level.

Bitcoin is currently trading between $87,700 and $88,000, about 30% below its all‑time high from October 2025. According to CryptoQuant analyst Woo Minkyu, the Combined Market Index has slipped below equilibrium with readings under 0.4, a pattern consistent with early bear phases. Sentiment is weak as CoinMarketCap’s Crypto Fear and Greed Index shows a reading of 28.

Following the April 2024 halving, miners faced the most severe margin squeeze in 2025 and accelerated shifts into AI, HPC and consolidation to stabilize revenue. With the subsidy fixed at 3.125 BTC and the cycle extending into 2026, profitability increasingly hinges on energy costs, fee income and financing choices.

Bitcoin is trading in the mid-$87,000 range after another failed push through the $90,000 resistance area, with key support holding near $86,500. Analysts highlight thin holiday liquidity, softer on-chain activity, and a possible macro-driven rotation toward risk assets as factors that could shape the next attempt to reclaim $90,000.

Bitcoin trades slightly above $88,290 after a recent high above $126,000 in October, raising concerns about a deeper pullback. Analyst Ali Martinez compares past cycles—1,064 days from bottom to top and about 364 days back to a low—and infers a potential bottom around October 2026, with downside near $37,500 based on prior drawdowns.

Bitcoin has closed 2025 in an "extreme fear" zone, after dropping 23% in Q4, its second-worst fourth quarter on record. Changpeng Zhao has pointed to previous fear phases in 2024 and early 2025, when BTC later rallied from around $54K and $77K to over $100K and $126K. Miners' positioning and production-cost levels near $80K currently show limited selling pressure, suggesting room for recovery if demand returns, though analysts remain split on Bitcoin's path into 2026.

Bitcoin's price is now more heavily influenced by derivatives markets than by spot trading, according to CoinGlass. The report notes that futures, perpetual swaps, and options account for most trading activity, with derivatives volumes consistently exceeding spot across rallies and corrections. As a result, short-term price direction is increasingly driven by leverage, positioning, and hedging behavior rather than direct spot buying or selling.