Recent on-chain and derivatives metrics indicated that Bitcoin's sell pressure has reached a three-year high, while spot ETF flows have remained negative. Analysts highlighted liquidation clusters around $83.5k and between $90k and $94.7k, with expectations of a possible BTC move down toward $82k followed by a bounce toward $95k linked to a large options expiry.

On Tuesday, Strategy CEO Phong Le said Bitcoin's market setup "couldn't be better," urging less focus on short‑term swings. BTC set a $125,100 all‑time high on Oct. 5 before dropping nearly 30% to $87,687, and the Fear & Greed Index has shown "Extreme Fear" since Dec. 12 as Strategy's mNAV traded at 0.93.

On 25 December, a long-dormant Bitcoin whale and BlackRock reportedly transferred a combined 2,692 BTC, worth about $234.7 million, to Coinbase and OKX while BTC’s price remained range-bound. At the same time, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw five straight days of net outflows and futures open interest declined, signaling reduced leverage and cautious sentiment around key support near $86,000.

Bitcoin short sellers have strengthened their positions after a 23% Q4 price drop, while U.S. spot ETF demand and CME Open Interest have fallen to levels last seen in 2024. With basis trade yields dropping from near 10% in early 2025 to around 5%, traders are eyeing possible moves toward $80K on the downside and liquidations near $88K–$90,600 if price spikes.

Bitcoin has traded in a tight $85k–$92k band throughout December, with a record $23.7 billion options expiry scheduled for Friday, 26 December. Analysts expect 5%–7% year-end price swings, with scenarios that include a dip toward $82k–$84k before a potential move toward the $95k max pain level.

Bitcoin is currently trading between $87,700 and $88,000, about 30% below its all‑time high from October 2025. According to CryptoQuant analyst Woo Minkyu, the Combined Market Index has slipped below equilibrium with readings under 0.4, a pattern consistent with early bear phases. Sentiment is weak as CoinMarketCap’s Crypto Fear and Greed Index shows a reading of 28.

Following the April 2024 halving, miners faced the most severe margin squeeze in 2025 and accelerated shifts into AI, HPC and consolidation to stabilize revenue. With the subsidy fixed at 3.125 BTC and the cycle extending into 2026, profitability increasingly hinges on energy costs, fee income and financing choices.

Bitcoin is trading in the mid-$87,000 range after another failed push through the $90,000 resistance area, with key support holding near $86,500. Analysts highlight thin holiday liquidity, softer on-chain activity, and a possible macro-driven rotation toward risk assets as factors that could shape the next attempt to reclaim $90,000.