Technical Analysis

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse projected Bitcoin will reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026, citing anticipated U.S. regulatory progress as the primary catalyst. Speaking at Binance Blockchain Week, he identified the proposed CLARITY Act as a key driver that could unlock industry growth. Prediction markets assign only 25% probability to Senate approval of crypto legislation before the end of 2026, though near-term sentiment favors Bitcoin reaching $100,000.

Bitcoin declined to $92,000 following a -32% drawdown from its all-time high, marking the steepest correction in the current cycle. On-chain data shows the P/L Score has remained in the -3 zone since November 6, a level historically associated with bearish market regimes and extended correction phases.

Ethereum's exchange-held supply has declined to 8.84%, nearly half Bitcoin's 14.8%, data show. Staking contracts, DeFi protocols, and long-term holding patterns are driving ETH off trading platforms at an accelerated pace compared to BTC.

JPMorgan analysts said on December 4 that MicroStrategy's financial stability holds greater influence over Bitcoin's short-term trajectory than recent miner selling activity. The firm's Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou noted that MSTR's enterprise value-to-bitcoin holdings ratio of 1.13 provides market reassurance despite declining hashrate and operational pressures on miners.

U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded net outflows of $194.6 million on Thursday, marking the largest single-day withdrawal in two weeks, data show. BlackRock's IBIT led outflows with $112.9 million, while Fidelity's FBTC saw $54.2 million in withdrawals. Trading volume for these products declined to $3.1 billion from $4.2 billion the previous day.

Bitcoin is maintaining support near $92,000 as technical indicators show weakening bearish momentum. Market sentiment received support from two developments: Binance co-founder CZ challenged gold advocate Peter Schiff to verify a gold bar's authenticity at Binance Blockchain Week, while Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan dismissed concerns that Strategy might be forced to liquidate its Bitcoin holdings.

Approximately 37,000 Bitcoin options contracts with a notional value of $3.4 billion expire on December 5, with a put/call ratio of 0.94 indicating balanced positioning between bulls and bears. Ethereum options worth $667 million also expire the same day, bringing total cryptocurrency options expiry to approximately $4 billion. Max pain for Bitcoin is estimated at $91,000, while the highest open interest concentration sits at the $100,000 strike price.

A previously inactive whale address withdrew 171 BTC valued at $15.79 million from Binance after a year of dormancy, according to Onchain Lens. Bitcoin traded at $93,050 with minimal 24-hour movement as Open Interest declined 0.70% to $60.19 billion, reflecting reduced trader activity while the asset tests descending trendline resistance.

Grayscale's spot Chainlink ETF launched December 3 with $42 million in first-day inflows and $13 million in trading volume. LINK climbed over 20% from $12 to $15 during the week, while Open Interest rose from $194 million to $240 million.

Strategy has sharply reduced its Bitcoin acquisition pace, purchasing only 135 BTC in December 2025 compared to 134,000 BTC at its 2024 peak. The company raised over $1.44 billion in equity to establish a dollar reserve covering preferred stock dividends and bond interest for 12 to 24 months. CryptoQuant data show monthly acquisitions declined from 134,000 BTC during the 2024 peak to 9,100 BTC in November 2025.