Bitcoin briefly traded under $65,000 on Monday after a proposal by US President Donald Trump to lift global tariffs to 15%, while an analyst now places the market in a late-cycle stress phase. Based on this six-stage roadmap, the current sideways period could eventually give way to a capitulation leg, with revised potential downside targets between $35,000 and $45,000 amid deteriorating liquidity conditions.

Bitcoin slipped after a rejection near $70K, with sellers driving price below recent daily lows. The analysis points to consolidation between the $60K support and $75K resistance, while a breakdown from a 4‑hour triangle shifts focus to $62K–$65K and the $69K–$70K liquidity cluster.

Over the weekend, Bitcoin fell below $65,000 before stabilizing on Monday, while Polymarket showed a 72% probability of BTC dropping under $55,000 with $1.2 million in volume. Bitcoin market capitalization decreased to $1.31 trillion, ranking 15th globally, and traders also priced 61% and 47% odds for dips below $50,000 and $45,000.

In the latest weekly Commitment of Traders report, technical analyst Tom McClellan highlights that non-commercial traders in Bitcoin futures have swung decisively toward net long exposure, a shift he describes as happening "with some urgency." He argues that, given the limited presence of traditional commercial hedgers in Bitcoin, these large speculators effectively act as the smart-money group, and that prior extreme readings in this cohort have aligned with significant market outcomes. McClellan stresses, however, that these COT extremes represent a market condition rather than a precise trading signal, even as Bitcoin changes hands around $65,663.

Bitcoin dropped earlier in the day to below $64,500, its lowest level in over two weeks, triggering almost $500 million in liquidations and impacting around 140,000 traders. One unidentified whale on HTX lost $61.51 million on a BTC/USDT position, while Machi Big Brother was partially liquidated on his Ethereum longs. His crypto portfolio loss has now exceeded $28.8 million, even as he continues to hold 1,700 ETH worth about $3.2 million.

On 23 February 2026, crypto analyst Doctor Profit said Bitcoin has shifted into Stage 4 of a six‑phase bear‑market framework after dropping from an October 2025 peak near $125,000–$126,000 to about $60,000. The roadmap outlines range‑bound fatigue now and a possible Stage 5 capitulation toward $35,000–$45,000, with a durable uptrend not expected until late 2026 or 2027.

On February 23, 2026, analyst Rekt Capital warned that Bitcoin could revisit capitulation-style declines similar to 2018 and 2022 if it loses support at the 200-week exponential moving average around $68,300. He notes that a weekly close below this level followed by a failed retest has historically triggered further downside, while recent weekly closes above it have so far delayed a bearish confirmation.

Bitcoin dropped within hours from $67,800 to a 17-day low of $64,350 on February 22/23 after renewed tariff moves by President Trump, before stabilizing near $66,000. Analyst Ali Martinez highlighted $58,500, $54,440, and $41,500 as the next major on-chain support areas if the decline continues. Altcoins also fell, while liquidations neared $500 million and open interest retreated to $19.5 billion amid rising retail fear.