New Zealand projects NZ$8.73 billion deficit in year to June 30, 2027 as tax revenue rises
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New Zealand's pre-election fiscal update shows a notably smaller projected operating deficit and an earlier return to surplus, driven by stronger-than-expected tax receipts and slightly lower spending. The improved fiscal path modestly supports sovereign credit perceptions and can influence NZD rates, but Treasury flagged material external risks from Middle East instability and energy prices, while growth remains tentative and unemployment elevated.
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New Zealand’s Treasury updated its pre-election forecasts, projecting an operating balance before gains and losses (OBEGAL) deficit of NZ$8.73 billion for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2027, narrowing from the NZ$14.09 billion projected in May. The government now expects a return to an OBEGAL surplus in 2028-29, one year earlier than the May Budget forecast of 2029-2030. Treasury also forecast inflation will return to the 1% to 3% target band in the second quarter of 2027, according to Reuters. With growth only just improving, inflation back above 3% and unemployment at a decade high, the economy has become a central issue ahead of the November election.
