Commodity

Cocoa prices weakened as larger supplies from the Ivory Coast weighed on sentiment, with cumulative arrivals reaching 2.14 MMT in the current marketing year, up 19% from a year earlier. December ICE New York cocoa fell 2.97%, while December ICE London cocoa slipped 0.91% after retreating from an 11-month high. Ghana’s Cocoa Board estimates 2026/27 output at 650,000 MT, down 13% from 750,000 MT last year. Early assessments of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast crop put the season at an average 1.8 MMT, down 18% from about 2.2 MMT in 2025/26.

Visible tanker traffic in the strait remained in single digits. Estimates of actual oil flows diverged further. WTI total open interest contracted sharply as oil prices continued to rise, according to Jin10. These data points point to tightness on the supply side alongside position adjustments, adding to concerns about near-term supply shortages.

StoneX cut its forecast for the 2026/27 global cocoa surplus to about 25,000 tonnes from 149,000 tonnes, citing rising El Niño risks and worsening crop prospects in Ivory Coast and Ghana. Early surveys suggest Ivory Coast’s 2026/27 crop is preliminarily estimated at around 1.8 million tonnes, down 18% from the prior season. Cocoa futures have surged over the past week, pushing above $6,500 per tonne to the highest level since July 9.

BT is benefiting from the recovery and sale of old copper cabling as copper prices hit record highs amid an AI-led surge in demand. The company has received a £99m upfront payment from recycler EMR, after taking £105m in 2024. As Openreach advances its full-fibre rollout, BT expects selling stripped copper over the next decade to generate more than £2bn in revenue.

Global coffee prices climbed sharply in July, with the ICO Composite Indicator Price average up 15.4% month on month to 287.26 US cents a pound, according to the International Coffee Organisation. Colombian Milds and Brazilian Naturals led Arabica gains, rising 18.1% and 17.9%, respectively. In India, premiums for Robusta Parchment AB widened to $1300-$1500 per tonne. The ICO warned that weather factors including a strengthening El Niño outlook could affect upcoming crops in Asia and South America.

India could enter the 2026-27 sugar season with about 3 million tonnes of opening inventory, the lowest in a decade and enough for roughly 35 days of consumption, according to a DAM Capital Advisors research report cited by ANI. The report pegs 2026-27 sugar production at around 29 million tonnes, but says deficient rainfall and an early start to crushing could weaken final output. It estimates total ethanol demand at around 14.5 billion litres, warning that low stocks leave the market more exposed to weather and firm international prices and could intensify competition between sugar production and ethanol made from cane.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said policymakers still “have work to do” if they do not gain enough confidence that inflation is moving toward the 2% target, lifting expectations for a September rate increase. Gold has fallen for four straight sessions, down Rs 9,500 per 10 grams, while silver is down Rs 7,700 per kg over three sessions. Spot gold hit its lowest level since August 19 during the session.

Gold fell more than 1% on August 31 after a hawkish inflation message from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks prompted profit-taking. COMEX gold futures slid 1.23% to $4,474.30 an ounce, while silver fell 1.71%. Gold dropped nearly 3% on Friday, its sharpest one-day decline in weeks. A stronger dollar and higher U.S. Treasury yields weighed on bullion, though geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns continued to provide some underlying support.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish tone on Friday, suggesting the central bank may raise rates if inflation does not move back toward its 2% target. Markets lifted the implied probability of a September hike to 57% from 36% on that signal. Spot gold was flat on Monday at $4,455.29 an ounce after touching its lowest level since August 19 and dropping more than 3% on Friday. December gold futures slipped 0.6% to $4,504.90 as investors awaited U.S. labor-market reports due this week.

The Iran war has pushed inflation to near 4%, well above the Federal Reserve’s target, and sent the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield up to around 4.75%. As yields rose, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed from below 6% before the war to nearly 7%. On a $320,000 loan, that translates to roughly $210 more in monthly payments. The bond market is also facing heavy supply pressure as the U.S. annual budget deficit is expected to exceed $2 trillion, or more than 6% of GDP.