Commodity

Gold sales during Ganesh Chaturthi in India fell about 15% year on year by volume as buyers cut back or shifted to lighter jewellery after a sharp rise in prices, according to industry executives. In Mumbai’s spot market, gold traded at Rs 1.57 lakh per 10 grams with a 3% goods and services tax, up about 60% from Rs 98,000 per 10 gm on August 28 last year. Consumers also stepped up old-jewellery exchanges, while sales of coins and bars and demand tied to weddings and younger self-purchasers remained relatively resilient.

Rainfall fell below average last week across most of Ivory Coast’s main cocoa-growing regions, with Daloa recording 3.6 mm, 26.1 mm under the norm. Farmers said the dry conditions could threaten the development of small pods to be harvested next year during the September-to-February main crop. They warned the situation could become alarming if the dry spell lasts until mid-October, according to Reuters. Weekly temperatures ranged from 25.6 to 29.7 degrees Celsius.

Global mined copper supply faces a risk of falling in 2026. Chile, the largest copper-producing country, is expected to see output drop 6.5% in the first half of 2026, while Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo are projected to cut a combined 600,000 tonnes—nearly 2.5% of global supply. Copper prices have risen more than 45% over the past year as demand in China remains strong, with the Yangshan copper premium reaching its highest level since November 2022.

Crude prices slipped to their lowest level in more than a week, with Brent at $102.05 a barrel and WTI at $98.50. Traders focused on the prospect that a UN meeting this week could spur U.S.-Iran diplomatic progress, even as Washington and Tehran traded fresh threats over the weekend. On the supportive side, Saudi Arabia has rerouted oil flows, lifting average daily exports through the Strait of Hormuz to 2.9 million barrels over the past week, up from 700,000 barrels in August.

Oil prices fell to an 11-day low on Monday as investors looked to this week’s United Nations meeting for possible diplomatic movement related to the Iran war and watched a partial recovery in Saudi crude exports. Brent’s November contract slid 2% to $101.75 a barrel, while WTI’s October contract fell 2% to $98.34. Analysts pointed to a sharp shift in Saudi flows, with satellite data showing an average of 2.9 million bpd moving through the Strait of Hormuz over the past six days, compared with 700,000 bpd in August.

France is facing tight diesel supplies, with 1 in 9 fuel stations reporting distribution problems and diesel priced at €2.39 per litre. In Spain, diesel has risen for 11 consecutive weeks, while electricity prices have reached their highest level since 2022. On the supply side, Europe has shut about 30 refineries over the past 15 years, Saudi Arabia’s Jazan refinery has been offline since July and was attacked, and European diesel prices are up 40% from June.

LNG spot prices are climbing on seasonal demand, while some Asian importers are pulling back on purchases. September LNG arrivals in Asia are expected to fall year over year, even as European imports rise this month and next because EU gas storage remains well below the five-year average for this time of year. Spot LNG prices have climbed 150% since February.

With the Iran war in its seventh month, commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is shrinking even as Gulf oil export demand remains pressing. Baltic Exchange data this week show the daily charter rate for a very large crude carrier hauling oil from the Persian Gulf to China rose to $1.035 million, versus about $208,000 per day for a comparable route. Higher insurance costs and industry consolidation have helped push freight rates higher as supply constraints lift oil back above $100 per barrel and diesel prices top $6 for the first time, up 60% from before the war.

The Netherlands recently moved 86 tonnes of gold from the United States and Canada to the Bank of England in London amid ongoing geopolitical turmoil. Some European countries are reassessing where they store their gold reserves. The moves reflect concerns about the current US fiscal trajectory and its ability to meet debt obligations.

Cotton arrivals from India’s 2026 kharif crop have started improving, with daily inflows estimated at around 30,000 bales across several key producing states. Prices in Maharashtra are hovering around ₹8,600 per quintal due to high moisture levels. Buyers are staying cautious as global prices soften, weighing on domestic spot and auction rates. Arrivals are expected to rise further from the first week of October.