Macro

Norway’s $2.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund reported a record first-half profit of $182 billion and a 9.4% return, lifted by a rally in Asian technology stocks. The fund also disclosed a 0.05% stake in SpaceX valued at about $1.2 billion. It said the SpaceX holding was smaller than its stakes in Nvidia worth $61.8 billion and Apple valued at $52.7 billion. Chief Executive Nicolai Tangen said strong equity-market gains were the main driver, according to CNBC.

Gold held near a 10-week high, with spot prices up 0.3% at $4,377.79 an ounce while U.S. futures were little changed. The metal earlier touched its highest level since June 5 but met resistance at the 100-day moving average around $4,387. Traders have cut the implied chance of a September Federal Reserve rate hike to 48% and are awaiting U.S. CPI data to reassess the rate path. Inflation worries tied to the Middle East conflict have offered support, while silver, platinum and palladium traded in narrow ranges.

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, its highest level since 2011. After headline inflation cooled in June, the central bank lowered its inflation forecasts, cutting its end-2026 trimmed mean projection to 3.3% from 3.5%. It expects inflation to return to the midpoint of its 2-3% target range by early 2028. The RBA’s next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for September 28-29.

U.S. existing-home sales fell 1.7% in July from June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday. The pace came in slightly above economists’ expectations of 4.05 million, according to FactSet. Sales were up 0.7% from a year earlier, while the median price rose 2% to $434,100. Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.69% last week, adding to affordability pressures for would-be buyers.

A weaker U.S. July jobs report cooled expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening, with the implied chance of a rate hike at next month’s FOMC meeting falling to 44% from 58%. U.S. stocks ended Friday higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.62%, the Dow up 0.28%, and the Nasdaq 100 up 1.19%. The 10-year Treasury yield slipped 3 bp to 4.65%. Atlassian jumped more than 36% after issuing a stronger-than-expected Q1 revenue outlook, while Cloudflare rose 4% after reporting better-than-expected earnings.

Soft US employment data sent short-term Treasury yields sharply lower. The two-year yield fell about 5 basis points to 4.19%, marking its biggest weekly drop since May. The 10-year yield declined about 9 basis points on the week to 4.65%, its first weekly fall in three. In interest-rate swaps, traders cut the implied probability of a Federal Reserve hike in September to about 40% from close to 60% before the data.

The Trump administration is moving forward with steps to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, with White House aide Dan Scavino telling her she has until Aug. 26 to challenge the action. The push follows a 5-4 Supreme Court ruling that allowed Cook to remain in her role while her lawsuit proceeds. The effort is being scrutinized as a political test of the Fed’s independence and the credibility of U.S. monetary policy.

The U.S. Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, far below expectations for an 80,000 increase. The unexpectedly weak data eased concerns that the Federal Reserve could tighten policy further. Traders cut the implied odds of a September rate hike to about 20% from 55%. The Dow and S&P 500 hit fresh record highs, led by gains in technology and consumer discretionary shares, with Atlassian standing out while chip stocks swung sharply.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, far below expectations for an increase of 80,000, prompting speculation that the Federal Reserve could pause rate hikes in September. Wall Street’s three major indexes rose on the news. The S&P 500 and the Dow logged their biggest weekly gains since April, while the Nasdaq hit its highest level since May.

Market pricing for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September fell sharply after the U.S. July jobs report came in well below expectations. Data from the Kalshi prediction market show the probability of the Fed holding rates steady rose from 50% before the report to 65%. CME’s FedWatch tool puts the hold-steadier odds at 60%, up from 45% on Thursday and about one-in-three a week earlier, while markets still price in a 75% chance of a hike by December.