Geopolitics

The Bundesbank president publicly criticized the United States for selling euros to support the yen without notifying Europe in advance. The move has drawn frustration in Europe over what it views as unilateral foreign-exchange intervention. European officials are concerned the action could affect the stability of the euro’s exchange rate.

The National Hurricane Center issued a hurricane watch for parts of the Texas and Louisiana coasts as Tropical Storm Edouard strengthens in the Gulf of America and moves toward a key U.S. refining and LNG corridor. Early Tuesday, the storm was about 90 miles southeast of Port Arthur, Texas. It had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph.

U.S. stock futures fell on Tuesday, with Dow futures down 0.7%, S&P 500 futures off 0.3% and Nasdaq-100 futures lower by 0.1%. Renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities pushed Brent crude to around $90 a barrel, weighing on risk appetite. After hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, markets priced a 64.4% probability of a September rate hike, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.75%.

Two oil supertankers were hit by unknown projectiles in quick succession while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping chokepoint in the Persian Gulf. The incident raised concerns about maritime security along one of the world’s most important oil routes. The information was reported by maritime security consultant Marisks, according to Bloomberg.

North Korean hackers have laundered more than $30 million worth of Bitcoin through decentralized derivatives exchange Hyperliquid over the past three weeks, Arkham data show. The activity comes as U.S. President Donald Trump and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) seek to bring the offshore venue within a U.S. regulatory framework. The timing has fueled market concerns about the platform’s compliance and security.

Renewed military strikes between the U.S. and Iran pushed oil prices sharply higher, with WTI up 3.38% to $86.24 a barrel and Brent up 3.52% to $91.20 per barrel. The jump in crude intensified inflation concerns after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh made hawkish remarks, lifting expectations for a September rate hike. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.764% and the 30-year yield rose to 5.266%, both hitting recent highs.

The war involving Iran has disrupted Middle East energy supplies, lifting Brent crude about 22% since February 28 to $88 a barrel. ExxonMobil’s upstream earnings in H1 2026 fell by around $1.3bn year on year as Middle East output declined, while its Qatar LNG volumes are expected to drop to about four million tonnes from 13 million tonnes last year. ConocoPhillips’ Qatar LNG volumes are also expected to fall to one million tonnes from 2.5 million tonnes. Analysts said a recovery in suspended operations and production could support growth into 2027.

After the Supreme Court in February found many Trump-era tariffs illegal, the federal government has refunded more than $160 billion in duties. Home Depot said it received about $730 million in refunds last quarter, but it did not outline any plan to reimburse customers. Because many retailers folded tariff costs into overall prices rather than itemizing them, consumers may have little practical path to recover what they paid.

Six months after the Iran conflict began, energy prices jumped, with Brent crude briefly rising above $120 a barrel and averaging around $90 in 2026 versus roughly $70 in 2025. Disruptions to Gulf output and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz weighed on the region, with Saudi exports down 10% from the first to the second quarter. Global equities held up as AI-linked investment supported risk assets, pushing the MSCI World index’s valuation to about $105 trillion this month and adding almost $7 trillion since the conflict began. Traditional safe havens such as Treasuries and gold drew less consistent demand, while fertiliser and agricultural supply chains faced disruption and renewed inflation concerns, according to Reuters.

Flight Centre reported EBITDA of $275 million, up 24.4% from the prior financial year, as total transaction volume rose 4.7% to nearly $26 billion. The company said Middle East tensions cut about $60 million from its fourth-quarter pre-tax profit and reduced transaction volume through the United Arab Emirates by 15%. Flight Centre also said it will redeploy $61.7 million raised from selling its stake in Pedal Group, as it refocuses on its core travel business.