Google paper says optimized Shor algorithm could break 256-bit elliptic-curve crypto with under 1,200 logical qubits
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Google's paper claims an optimized Shor approach could break 256-bit elliptic-curve cryptography with far fewer quantum resources than previously assumed, directly challenging the security model underpinning BTC/ETH key ownership. The discussion of mempool "onspend" attacks and exposed public keys in dormant wallets raises tail-risk concerns and could elevate risk premia across crypto. Google's 2029 PQC migration target underscores urgency and highlights ecosystem unpreparedness.
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Google has published a paper claiming an optimized version of Shor’s algorithm could break 256-bit elliptic-curve cryptography with far fewer resources than previously assumed. The standard underpins the security of major blockchains such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. The paper estimates the attack could be carried out with fewer than 1,200 logical qubits and under 90 million Toffoli gates, and the team is not releasing code due to the technique’s sensitivity. Google has also set an internal goal to migrate its own infrastructure to post-quantum cryptography by 2029, without detailing a plan for public blockchains.
