Russia's central bank confirmed that from September 1, retail investors will be allowed to trade only Bitcoin, Ethereum and USDT on regulated exchanges. The update sets a restricted list of eligible crypto assets for retail access under the country's regulated trading framework.

The US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said entities doing legally permissible work including digital assets and other novel technologies should have a path to becoming a national bank. The statement signals crypto firms may seek national trust bank charters for custody, settlement and stablecoin operations under federal oversight.

US lawmakers have not yet voted on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act before adjournment, and CoinDesk reports committee leadership could shift if Democrats win the House in 2026. The bill would classify digital assets and clarify SEC and CFTC roles, with Maxine Waters Shontel Brown and Elizabeth Warren cited as key figures who could push tougher disclosure and enforcement provisions.

The US and Japan confirmed on Aug 3 a coordinated foreign exchange intervention carried out on July 30 and 31, buying yen and moving it from about 164 per dollar to near 155. On Aug 12, USD CNY was about 6.748, with the yuan up 0.54 percent over the prior month and more than 6 percent over 12 months, as China manages daily fixing and a trading band.

The U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has approved Bitcoin and other crypto firms to become national banks. "America and the OCC are once again open for business."

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says the SEC may be able to deliver faster regulatory direction for crypto even as the CLARITY Act remains stuck in Congress. The agency has scheduled an open meeting for Aug. 14 to consider proposing its first formal "Regulation Crypto" framework covering certain digital-asset offerings. One potential outcome is that the SEC formally advances the Regulation Crypto proposal this week. Hougan characterized the approach as a "bypass road" around CLARITY, arguing that while CLARITY requires legislation, the SEC can use existing authority to establish rules and exemptions. Under the concept, new crypto projects could get a clearer path to raise capital without immediately triggering full securities registration, with an expected transition as networks become more decentralized. The idea echoes challenges from the 2018 ICO era, when projects sought funding while navigating securities laws. Hougan says clearer rules could spark a new wave of innovation. Any SEC move would still be the beginning of a longer process, requiring public comment and additional steps before rules become final. A second scenario is progress on an innovation exemption for tokenized securities. The SEC has been exploring ways to make blockchain-based versions of traditional securities easier to issue and trade, a shift that could support 24/7 trading of tokenized stocks and move portions of equity-market activity onto blockchain infrastructure. This aligns with Chairman Paul Atkins' Project Crypto agenda, which emphasizes rulemaking, exemptions and clearer digital-asset classifications rather than primarily relying on enforcement. The SEC is also coordinating with the CFTC on asset classification. Even if the SEC moves ahead, the CLARITY Act would still matter. The bill has passed the House and cleared the Senate Banking Committee, but lawmakers left Washington for the August recess without a Senate floor vote. Debate is expected to resume around September, with outstanding disagreements over DeFi, ethics provisions and stablecoin yield. The result could be a two-track approach: SEC rules provide a faster near-term framework while Congress works toward more durable legislation. A March SEC–CFTC framework identified BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, ADA, LINK, AVAX, DOT, HBAR, LTC, DOGE, SHIB, XTZ, BCH, APT and XLM as digital commodities. A potential Regulation Crypto proposal would not automatically expand that list, but it could clarify routes for ETFs, staking products and structured products tied to assets already treated as commodities. If approved, the primary upside would be improved regulatory clarity, potentially encouraging new project formation and bringing more traditional financial activity on-chain. Still, SEC rules would not carry the permanence of legislation and could face legal challenges, meaning any proposal would be a meaningful step—but not a substitute for the CLARITY Act.

Huo Xing Finance reported that, as of Aug. 12, swap-market pricing implies roughly a 50% chance the Federal Reserve lifts rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting. After the weaker-than-expected July nonfarm payrolls report, Wall Street pricing has settled near an even split on whether the Fed will deliver a quarter-point hike. With forward guidance pared back under Waugh's leadership, investors are leaning more heavily on incoming data to gauge the policy path. July CPI is viewed as a key swing factor: a tame print would further erode the case for tightening, while an upside surprise could quickly restore a 25-bps September hike as the base case. In U.S. rates, the 10-year Treasury yield—often described as the "anchor of global asset pricing"—has seen its bond-market risk-reward skew toward a faster decline in yields if July CPI comes in soft. That bias is being reinforced by alignment between macro signals and CTA positioning in Treasury futures. (Zhì Tōng Financial News)

September is shaping up to be a pivotal month for crypto markets. The U.S. Senate has set Sept. 15 for a vote on the closely watched CLARITY Act, putting a firm date on legislation that has driven shifting expectations through the second half of the year. Prediction market pricing underscores the uncertainty. Polymarket odds for passage previously surged to a record 58% before sliding sharply to below 20%, a swing that reflects how unclear the bill's trajectory remains. With the vote now on the calendar, the outcome is widely viewed as a potential catalyst for broader crypto sentiment. Not everyone expects sweeping market impact. Grayscale has framed the proposal primarily as regulatory clarification rather than a major growth trigger, noting that crypto activity is already expanding rapidly, including in the real-world assets (RWA) segment. Even so, the prolonged ambiguity has weighed on risk appetite. Despite easing macro fears and a more risk-on backdrop, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has yet to reach the euphoric levels typically associated with strong bull phases. Market watchers argue that clearer direction on the CLARITY Act could be important for restoring retail liquidity. Seasonality adds another layer of caution. AMBCrypto notes that September has historically ranked as the third-weakest month for crypto. The legislative vote also lands in a crowded macro calendar, with a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting expected about 35 days away. Markets are currently pricing close to a 50/50 split between a rate hike and a rate cut, highlighting uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's next move. Taken together, the CLARITY Act vote and the FOMC decision could turn September into a volatility flashpoint for crypto. CoinGlass data show Bitcoin's average September ROI at 3.08%, placing it among BTC's historically softer months. Still, September has not produced a negative ROI since the 2022 bear market, raising the question of whether 2026 could break that recent pattern. That backdrop gives the CLARITY Act added significance. If the bill appears more likely to pass, it could lift confidence and attract fresh liquidity. If momentum fades, September's seasonal weakness and a high-stakes Fed decision could combine to threaten Bitcoin's recent September streak. Summary: September could be a defining month for crypto. Progress on the CLARITY Act may support sentiment, while disappointment could pressure BTC at a time when seasonal and macro risks are already elevated.

Aug. 12 — Swap market pricing shows traders assigning roughly a 50% probability to a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate increase in September, a view that has solidified after July's unexpectedly weak nonfarm payrolls report. With the Fed under Waugh scaling back forward guidance, investors are once again leaning heavily on incoming data to map the policy path. Markets are treating July CPI as a key catalyst with an asymmetric payoff: a softer print would further erode the case for another hike, while an upside surprise could quickly re-establish a roughly 9% probability of a September hike as the baseline scenario. In U.S. rates, the 10-year Treasury yield—often viewed as the anchor for global asset pricing—shows a risk-reward profile increasingly skewed toward a sharp decline if July CPI comes in benign. That tilt is being reinforced by the interplay between macro data and CTA positioning in Treasuries. (Zhitong Financial)