World Bank Sees Commodity Prices Up 23% by 2026 as Geopolitical Risks Mount

The World Bank said on Wednesday, October 28, that global commodity prices are projected to rise 23% by 2026, driven by higher energy prices tied to the Middle East conflict, disrupted freight routes, blocked Black Sea grain shipments and strong demand for safe-haven assets including gold. In its latest Commodity Markets Outlook, the bank said global shocks have intensified this year, pushing up prices for oil, natural gas, food and metals. A further escalation in the Middle East or continued damage to Russian oil infrastructure could worsen the outlook. The report forecasts a 7% decline in commodity prices next year. If shocks persist, including the strongest El Niño event since 1950, food prices could remain elevated, raising the risk of higher inflation and tighter monetary policy. The World Bank said global oil inventories have been steadily depleted during the Middle East conflict. It expects global oil supply to fall 5.2% in 2026, the largest drop in four decades outside the 2020 global recession.