US President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing from May 13 to 15, a trip expected to cover AI, semiconductors, trade and investment, and Middle East tensions. Bitcoin was trading near $81,000 at the time of writing, up less than 1% over the past seven days but around 13% over the past 30 days. The article outlines potential implications for crypto policy expectations, mining supply chains, and broader macro pressures such as oil’s move to $105.50 after US-Iran talks reportedly stalled.

Bitcoin’s retail segment ($0–$10K) showed a clear momentum rebound: the Retail Demand 30D Change climbed from -8.2% on April 5 to +4.38% by May 12 and moved above zero on April 27. Over the same period, the 30DMA of absolute $0–$10K transfer volume rose more modestly, from about $336M to about $351M. The figures suggest improving retail activity without signaling broad retail euphoria.

Bitcoin traded around $81,186 on May 12, 2026, with price action constrained as derivatives positioning shifted toward passive deleveraging. Open interest fell from $29.09B on May 5 to $26.84B on May 11 while funding hit -0.01218343, alongside a visible liquidity target at $85,537. Miner inflows to Binance since May 1 reached about 50,000 BTC, adding a supply variable to a market that has shown only modest spot-volume growth.

Bitcoin moved higher over the past week from around $78,000 and tested $82,000 twice, while briefly slipping below $81,000 in early Asia trading on Tuesday. Analysts said spot volume has risen and buyers have continued to absorb pullbacks, though they also flagged softer capital inflows and a market that remains sensitive to risk appetite shifts.

Bitcoin pulled back from the $82,000 area after failing to hold above $81,500, then continued lower before stabilizing. The price is now trading above $80,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average, with a contracting triangle showing support near $80,800. A push above $81,800 and $82,000 could reopen upside targets, while rejection may keep focus on $80,800 and lower supports.

Strategy (Nasdaq: MSTR) indicated it could sell some bitcoin to help fund dividends after reporting a roughly $12.5 billion first-quarter 2026 net loss largely linked to bitcoin's quarterly decline. The company reports holding 818,869 BTC, valued at about $67 billion, as investors weigh liquidity, dividend coverage, and obligations tied to preferred securities.

Bitcoin’s on-chain signals have improved, with the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio moving out of the "panic zone" as highlighted by CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr. The analyst also noted Realized Cap has turned upward and its 30-day change is slightly positive, indicating modest net inflows over the past month. BTC price action has remained rangebound, hovering near $81,000.

Bitcoin's recent rally is showing signs of fading, with analysts outlining scenarios that could extend the pullback toward $40,000 after a move above $82,000. One view frames the rebound as a "dead cat bounce," while another argues the broader bear phase may be about 55% complete at 216 days into the cycle. Separately, a market watcher said this week could represent a cycle top, citing past crash patterns and a potential liquidation risk tied to a rapid open-interest spike.