Geopolitics

On June 29, rising tensions between the United States and Iran around the Strait of Hormuz pushed international crude oil prices higher, stoking inflation worries and reinforcing expectations of further U.S. Federal Reserve rate hikes. Spot gold fell 0.8% to $4,057.77 per ounce, marking a fourth consecutive monthly decline. In India, 24K gold was priced at about ₹1.43 lakh per 10 grams, while silver held at ₹2,193.50 per 10 grams.

Iran launched a new round of drone and missile attacks on Bahrain and Kuwait over the weekend, in response to new U.S. airstrikes tied to fresh sanctions, sharply escalating U.S.-Iran tensions. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1% on Monday to 68,704.70, extending Friday’s 4.2% drop, while SoftBank Group slid another 5.9%. Oil prices rose but remained near levels seen before the Iran war began in late February. The latest geopolitical escalation has lifted energy risk premiums and weighed on sentiment toward Asian tech stocks.

Renewed tensions in the Middle East have added upward momentum to oil prices, though hopes for talks have capped gains. The repricing of geopolitical risk has also lifted crude-price volatility. In equities, Apple faces limited room to raise prices as chip costs rise, while Micron’s upbeat earnings outlook has supported sentiment. A stronger dollar is pressuring the yen after Japan previously intervened in currency markets.

On June 29, MCX gold July futures fell 0.37% to Rs 1,43,630 per 10 grams, while MCX silver July futures edged up 0.09% to Rs 2,21,600 per kg. The pullback came as safe-haven demand cooled after the US and Iran exchanged attacks in the Persian Gulf but markets viewed the conflict as not escalating and the ceasefire as holding. In the global market, spot gold slipped as much as 0.9% after rising 1.6% on Friday, according to data collected by Bloomberg.

Fresh U.S.-Iran military strikes over the weekend in the Gulf helped push oil prices higher, adding to inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations for three Federal Reserve rate hikes this year, with markets pricing about an 80% chance of a December increase. Spot gold fell 0.7% to $4,061.35 per ounce. The metal was headed for a fourth straight monthly decline, bringing the cumulative drop to 10.4%.

The article says the U.S. dollar is set to post its largest monthly gain in a year, with markets watching U.S.-Iran war risk and upcoming U.S. jobs data. It does not cite any confirmed escalation such as new military developments, attacks, or sanctions, and presents geopolitics as one factor among several. The employment data have not yet been released and are flagged as a forward-looking focus. It frames the move as a macro sentiment backdrop rather than a response to a new, specific event.

Tensions between the United States and Iran have escalated in the Gulf, with energy shipping in the Strait of Hormuz again disrupted by strikes, lifting oil prices on Monday. The dollar index rose to 101.36 and was on track for a 2.5% gain in June, its biggest monthly rise in nearly a year. The euro, sterling, the Australian and New Zealand dollars, and the yen all stayed under pressure, with the yen sliding further to a fresh 40-year low. Markets are focused on upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls data and remarks by new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the ECB forum.

Escalating military conflict between the US and Iran has stalled negotiations, but gold has still fallen for two straight weeks. Comex gold slid 3.5% on the week to USD 4,096.3 per ounce, while silver dropped 10.7% to USD 59.67 per ounce. In India, MCX gold August futures fell 2.06% and MCX silver September futures declined 6.4%. Analysts cited a stronger US dollar, a near-10% drop in crude oil that eased inflation concerns, and rising US Treasury yields as key factors weighing on precious metals.

Ray Dalio has compared the 2026 U.S.-Iran confrontation over the Strait of Hormuz to Britain’s 1956 Suez Crisis, describing it as a systemic turning point for U.S. imperial and financial dominance. He points to the U.S. national debt crossing $39 trillion and the dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves falling to 56.9%, the lowest since 1995. He also argues the conflict reflects a broader reordering of global power rather than a standalone episode.

Iran attacked a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, raising concerns about the security of a key energy-shipping route. Data the next day showed traffic through the strait had rebounded markedly, and the United States and Iran agreed to a 60day period of talks while pledging to cease hostilities. Brent crude fell 4.3% to $71.99 a barrel and WTI dropped to $69.23, while the U.S. national average gasoline price slipped to $3.90 a gallon. The latest flare-up did not result in a material supply disruption.