Bitcoin fell to $60,000 in an early-February crash, then rebounded to nearly $83,000 about a week ago before sliding to a two-week low of $78,000. Several analysts argue recent conditions still resemble late-cycle risk, citing elevated realized profit margins, ongoing bearish positioning from Doctor Profit, and the need to invalidate historical cycle patterns if $60,000 holds as a definitive bottom.

Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor said Strategy has discussed the option of selling Bitcoin and argued that treating its holdings as "never sell" could weaken how the market views Bitcoin as an asset. In a May 10 YouTube podcast appearance, he said Strategy holds about $65 billion in Bitcoin and cited $20 to $100 billion of Bitcoin-market liquidity that he said is not correlated to the firm's equity or credit.

Bitcoin could trigger up to $1.28 billion in short liquidations if its spot price rises above $81,818, based on a liquidation map. The level reflects a dense cluster of leveraged bearish positions that may be forced to close via exchange buybacks. Such forced buying can intensify upside volatility if price clears and holds the threshold.

Abu Dhabi's Mubadala Investment Company increased its position in BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) by 16% in Q1 2026, reporting 14.7 million shares worth $565.6 million. The disclosure shows the share count rose even as the reported dollar value slipped from Q4 2025 levels, which the report attributes to a pullback in bitcoin prices from late-2025 highs.

BTC/XAU has risen 19% in Q2 and is nearing a mid-January resistance level as macro uncertainty builds. The setup echoes Q1, when Bitcoin fell more than 30% from $93K to about $62K by mid-February and BTC/XAU later saw a 28% correction. With April inflation around 3.8%, Treasury yields above 4.5%, and Japan’s Q1 Treasury sales highlighted as a liquidity factor, some warn a similar pullback risk remains.

Bitcoin remains under pressure after failing to clear the $82,885 resistance area, with analysts focusing on whether price can hold above $78,203 and nearby support levels. If weakness persists, downside targets highlighted include $74,929 and the $71,000–$68,000 Fibonacci region, while a break higher would shift attention to $83,000, $87,000, and broader resistance around $98,000 and $107,000–$109,000.

Bitcoin has fallen below the $80,000 level after consolidating there for at least 12 days, while long-term holders (155+ days) reached a 14-month high in unrealized profit. Over the past 24 hours, BTC perpetual longs saw $184 million in liquidations versus $4.17 million for shorts, as sell volume outweighed buys across Binance, Bybit, OKX, and KuCoin.

Bitcoin slipped back under the $80,000 support between 12 and 16 May after repeated failures near $81,000–$82,000 and broader profit-taking. The pullback coincided with heavy ETF selling pressure, including roughly $290 million of net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on 15 May, while spot Ethereum ETFs saw $65.66 million in outflows. Several major altcoins also fell, led by Solana down nearly 7.9% and Cardano down over 7%.