CME's FedWatch tool shows markets assigning a 97% chance that the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged through June, with a 3% probability of a 25 basis point cut. Looking through July, the odds of rates staying on hold are 81.9%. A 25 basis point hike is priced at 15.5%, while a 25 basis point cut stands at 2.5%.

The US economy added 172,000 jobs in May, about twice what economists had forecast, prompting investors to rethink the Federal Reserve path from potential cuts to the possibility of additional tightening. The employment report, released June 5, topped expectations for roughly 85,000 nonfarm payroll gains. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3%, and prior months’ payroll figures were revised higher. Rate expectations shifted quickly. CME FedWatch showed the implied probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by December 2026 rising to about 68%, from 52% before the data. Two-year Treasury yields climbed around 9 to 13 basis points, ending near 4.13% to 4.17%. Risk assets weakened alongside the jump in yields. Total digital-asset market capitalization fell about $390 billion in the week around the release. Bitcoin traded back into a $61,000 to $62,000 range after the selloff, and Ether also posted sizable losses. Higher Treasury yields can pressure crypto by improving the relative appeal of government bonds. As guaranteed returns rise, capital often shifts away from more speculative assets, raising the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin when two-year Treasuries yield above 4%. Similar patterns surfaced in the 2022–2023 hiking cycle, when Bitcoin fell from an all-time high near $69,000 to below $16,000. For investors, tighter monetary conditions typically lead institutions to trim exposure to high-volatility assets, while retail traders can face increased margin and financing costs as benchmark rates move higher.

Ethereum's key momentum gauge has fallen to levels never seen before. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a widely used indicator for identifying overbought and oversold conditions, has posted the lowest readings in ETH's trading history. On June 6, Ethereum's daily RSI printed between 17 and 25. In technical analysis, readings below 30 are typically viewed as oversold, while sub-20 levels are uncommon and often associated with acute market stress. Coin Bureau data also shows the monthly RSI sliding to historic lows, signaling that the weakness is not confined to short-term trading. Spot prices in early June have ranged from about $1,569 to $1,778, far below Ethereum's August 2025 peak near $4,946. That puts ETH roughly 64% off its high. At the time of the reading, Ethereum's market capitalization stood near $190B. On-chain exchange data points in the same direction. Ethereum balances held on exchanges have fallen to around 14.8 million ETH, the lowest level since 2016. Past cycles show that extreme oversold conditions can coincide with major turning points. In early 2024, ETH bottomed near $2,150 during similarly depressed momentum readings and later climbed to nearly $4,000, an advance of roughly 86%. Late 2022's FTX-driven selloff also produced deeply oversold signals that ultimately aligned with a generational low across several crypto assets. During the March 2020 COVID shock, ETH briefly slipped below $100 before a multi-year rally that eventually carried it above $4,800. For long-horizon investors, the combination of a 64% drawdown from the peak, record-low RSI, and decade-low exchange balances creates a setup that has historically favored patient capital. In prior cases where RSI reached similarly extreme levels, prices later traded materially above the oversold lows. Traders looking for evidence of a reversal often watch for the daily RSI to reclaim and hold the 30 level, for exchange balances to stabilize or continue falling, and for buying interest to show up through stronger volume on up days rather than down days.

A market expert says Bitcoin has entered its first "hashrate bear market" after the network's computing power fell by 145 exahashes per second (EH/s).

UPDATE: Strategy reported an unrealized loss of $13.7B.

Bitcoin climbed 5% to $64,000 after President Trump said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has "no choice" but to accept an Iran deal.

New York State Justice Kathy J. King on June 4 ordered a pause in a lawsuit that seeks ownership of 39,069 long-inactive Bitcoin wallets, after Ian R. Cohen moved to submit an amicus (friend-of-the-court) brief. Plaintiffs have until July 7 to respond. The wallets are estimated to contain about 3.8 million BTC, valued at roughly $235 billion at current prices. The claim was brought by Noah Doe and two companies, who are relying on New York's lost-and-found property law—a statute courts have not previously applied to cryptoassets. Galaxy Research estimated the average wallet on the list holds 97.25 BTC. Galaxy also linked roughly 21,900 of the cited addresses—about 1.1 million BTC—to wallet activity associated with Satoshi Nakamoto. Why it matters: A court test of how lost-property rules apply to Bitcoin could influence market confidence in assumptions around dormant-wallet ownership and custody. Market sentiment: Cautiously bullish, legal-driven, choppy. The stay reduces near-term legal pressure, but the ownership dispute remains unresolved. Context: Tulip Trading previously argued that developers owed a fiduciary duty to help recover about 111,000 BTC. Bitcoin Core developers said in 2023 that Tulip Trading would need to prove ownership before the case could move forward (Blockworks). The New York matter differs by attempting to use lost-and-found law to claim dormant wallets, rather than focusing on developer obligations following an alleged private-key loss. Ripple effects: A ruling that opens the door to claims on long-inactive addresses could reshape custody expectations. Attention now turns to the July 14 hearing and whether the court treats Bitcoin inactivity as weak evidence of abandonment. Opportunities and risks: - Opportunities: A fuller, adversarial record after the July 14 hearing could strengthen property-right arguments for maintaining exposure through legal headline risk. - Risks: If the court allows the plaintiffs to proceed after July 14, reducing event-risk exposure tied to dormant-wallet headlines could help limit downside from legal uncertainty.

Six Republican senators on May 27 urged the Federal Reserve, the FDIC and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to rewrite capital rules that shape how banks can engage with Bitcoin and other digital assets, arguing the current regime effectively prices banks out of the market. Led by Senator Cynthia Lummis, the group took aim at the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision's 1,250% risk weight for bank holdings of digital assets. Under that approach, banks effectively must hold capital equal to 100% of their Bitcoin exposure. A bank that carries $10 million of Bitcoin on its balance sheet would need to reserve $10 million of capital, which the senators labeled a "blanket penalty" and a "de facto ban." The lawmakers called for what they described as a "risk-based, technology-neutral capital framework" for on-balance-sheet digital asset holdings, seeking treatment aligned with an asset's underlying risk rather than a punitive multiplier. They pointed to a March 2026 interagency clarification as a sign regulators are already moving in that direction. The guidance aligned capital treatment for tokenized securities with the capital treatment of their underlying assets, such as granting a tokenized Treasury bond the same treatment as the Treasury bond backing it. The senators urged regulators to extend that logic to a wider set of digital assets, including Bitcoin. In their view, the current framework reflects entrenched institutional caution rather than a genuine risk assessment. Fed Vice Chair Bowman has previously said US regulators are "not adopting those Basel risk weights" because they are unrealistic. The push comes as the Basel Committee itself reconsiders its posture. In November 2025, the committee said it would review its standards for crypto asset exposures. The letter also lands amid fresh legislative activity. The CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633) would broaden banks' authority to conduct digital asset activities, including custody, trading and other services that many traditional institutions have largely been unable to offer. The senators said clear regulatory guidance is necessary to expand these activities responsibly. For investors, any shift toward the senators' preferred approach would materially lower the hurdle for institutional Bitcoin adoption by reducing the need for dollar-for-dollar capital reserves tied to on-balance-sheet crypto holdings. Key signposts include whether the Fed, FDIC and OCC issue a formal response, how the Basel Committee's review develops through 2026, and whether the CLARITY Act advances beyond the committee stage.

May hiring came in far stronger than expected, and markets treated it as bad news for rate cuts. The economy added 172,000 jobs in May, according to figures released June 5—more than double the 80,000 nonfarm payrolls consensus. With inflation and rates still front of mind, investors took the report as a sign the Federal Reserve has little incentive to cut anytime soon. Equities sold off sharply. The Nasdaq Composite sank 4.2%, its steepest single-session drop since April 2025. The S&P 500 fell 2.6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid about 1.4%, snapping what had been a nine-week winning streak across the major indices. Chip stocks, which had benefited from a rally partly built on expectations of Fed easing, led the downside. Nvidia dropped 6.2%, Broadcom fell 7.9%, and Micron was down roughly 5% to 9% at various points in the session. Bond yields moved higher as traders repriced the path for policy. The 10-year Treasury yield pushed above 4.5%. The 2-year yield climbed to 4.16%, its highest level in a year, signaling the bond market expects the Fed to stay on hold longer than equity investors had been betting. Unemployment held at 4.3%. While stable on its face, it reinforced the message of a labor market running hot enough to leave the Fed little room to turn dovish. Crypto followed risk assets lower. Bitcoin slid toward the $60,000–$62,000 range as appetite for speculative exposure faded. With borrowing costs elevated, less capital tends to flow into higher-volatility assets—an area where many institutional managers still place Bitcoin. For investors, the key question is whether the move was a one-day shock or the start of a broader repricing. A 10-year yield above 4.5% is often viewed as a psychological trigger for shifting allocations from equities to fixed income. Positioning may also have amplified the decline: after weeks of gains, leveraged long exposure had built up across stocks and crypto, and forced liquidations likely intensified the selling. A 4.2% Nasdaq drop is the kind of session that can spark margin calls and cascade selling, suggesting part of the slide may have been mechanical rather than purely fundamental.