Good morning. Today is Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Here's your Futures Morning Rush briefing. Top developments 1) Iran has agreed to a pause in military operations, but Iranian media say the war is not over. 2) On Tuesday local time, U.S. President Donald Trump said the ceasefire period would be extended while a maritime blockade on Iran remains in place, and that Washington is waiting for Iran to submit a unified proposal for negotiations. 3) Indonesia's Energy Ministry said that as of April 13 the country had consumed 3.9 million kiloliters of palm oil-based biodiesel in 2026 under its blending mandate. 4) China cut retail fuel prices effective 24:00 on April 21: gasoline down RMB 555/ton and diesel down RMB 530/ton. On a national average basis, 92-octane gasoline fell RMB 0.44/liter, 95-octane gasoline RMB 0.46/liter, and No.0 diesel RMB 0.45/liter. 5) The U.S. Department of Commerce reported Tuesday that retail sales rose 1.7% month over month; the figures are not inflation-adjusted. 6) Fed chair nominee Walsh said the Federal Reserve needs fundamental policy reform, including a different, entirely new inflation framework. Macro and policy - China's State Council released "Opinions on Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of the Service Sector," calling for upgrades to the multimodal freight system, wider adoption of "one document" and "one container" practices, stronger rail-water intermodal transport, and faster shifting of bulk and medium-to-long-distance cargo from road to rail and waterways. The document also urges accelerating the transition from railway freight to railway logistics, improving rules on scheduling, settlement and connectivity, and enhancing oil and gas pipeline operations and nationwide interconnection. - Iran decided it would not take part in U.S.-Iran talks scheduled for the 22nd; U.S. media reported Vice President Vance canceled a trip to Bahrain. - China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said value added for industrial enterprises above designated size rose 6.1% year over year in Q1, with all 31 provinces posting growth; more than 80% of industries expanded, and industry contributed nearly 40% of overall economic growth. - On April 20, the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference held a symposium in Beijing on the Q1 2026 macro situation, attended by Vice Chairman Wang Yong. Participants urged policy alignment with 15th Five-Year Plan goals, better coordination of domestic and external conditions, stronger forward-looking macro policy coordination, and more proactive fiscal policy. - Iranian media rejected Trump's ceasefire extension, saying Iran did not request it. A parliamentary speaker adviser called the move meaningless, arguing the blockade is equivalent to bombing. Iran's armed forces said they would immediately strike pre-selected targets with overwhelming force if attacked. - Trump wrote on Truth Social on the afternoon of April 21 local time that, at the request of Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff and Prime Minister, the U.S. would postpone military strikes against Iran, extend the ceasefire, and require Iran to first present a unified negotiation proposal. U.S. forces will continue enforcing the maritime blockade while maintaining readiness. He said the ceasefire will last until Iran submits its proposal and negotiations conclude "regardless of the outcome." - Walsh told a Senate committee he would pursue comprehensive policy reforms if confirmed as Fed chair, citing mistakes made in the pandemic-era inflation response and calling for new tools and communication, including forward guidance, economic projections and the dot plot. - Early on April 22 local time, Iran's state television said Iran had "won" on the battlefield and described control of the Strait of Hormuz as a highly valuable gain. It confirmed a pause in military operations while warning against pressure to enter negotiations under threat of attack. Global futures: key moves - Energy: Front-month WTI crude settled up 3.2% at $90.22/bbl; front-month Brent rose 3.75% to $99.06/bbl. - Precious metals: COMEX gold fell 1.87% to $4,738.50/oz; COMEX silver dropped 4.21% to $76.67/oz. - Base metals (LME): zinc +0.84% to $3,437.0/ton; nickel -0.55% to $18,150.0/ton; aluminum -0.74% to $3,531.0/ton; lead -0.84% to $1,957.5/ton; copper -0.91% to $13,154.5/ton; tin -2.13% to $49,605.0/ton. Ferrous and industrial commodities - Shanghai Futures Exchange approved an expansion of hot-rolled coil futures storage capacity at a facility at No. 88 Jinqiao Avenue, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu, operated by Zhenjiang Huilong Changjiang Port Co., Ltd., increasing approved capacity from 1.8 million tons to 2.1 million tons. - Mysteel satellite data showed iron ore inventories at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil totaled 14.933 million tons for April 13–19, up 350,000 tons from the prior week, the highest level since the start of the year. - BHP reported third-quarter iron ore output of 62.8 million tons (+2% YoY) and metallurgical coal output of 3.8 million tons (-3% YoY). Average realized iron ore price was $85.35/ton, flat quarter over quarter. Agriculture and softs - SPPOMA data showed Malaysia's palm oil output surged April 1–20: fresh fruit bunch yields +29.80% MoM, oil extraction rate +0.20% MoM, and production +31.13% MoM. - Indonesia said 2026 palm biodiesel consumption reached 3.9 million kiloliters as of April 13. The country plans to raise the mandatory blend from 40% to 50% (B50) starting July 1, with a three-month transition. B50 is being tested in passenger cars, trucks, agricultural equipment, mining machinery and ships. - GAPKI data for February showed Indonesia exported 3.3 million tons of palm oil (+17% YoY). February production was 5.02 million tons; end-February inventories were 2.02 million tons. - National Grain and Oils Information Center: crusher operating rates recovered slightly last week on downstream restocking, extending the decline in soybean meal inventories. This week, utilization is expected to edge lower, with soybean crush around 1.7 million tons. Soybean meal stocks are expected to keep falling and may drop to about 500,000 tons by month-end, down about 100,000 tons from the prior period and up about 400,000 tons year over year, roughly 200,000 tons above the three-year average. - USDA attaché in Argentina: 2025/26 corn production is projected at 61 million metric tons on expanded acreage, well above USDA's previous official estimate of 52 million metric tons. Most analysts and brokers see 58–65 million metric tons. As harvesting advances, sources say planted area appears larger than previously expected. - USDA export sales: private exporters reported sales of 1.95 million metric tons of corn to an unknown destination and 1 million metric tons to Colombia, both for 2025/2026 delivery. The U.S. corn marketing year begins September 1. Energy and chemicals - Three industry sources said Russia will suspend exports of Kazakh oil to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline starting May 1. - China's NDRC Price Monitoring Center said international oil prices fell during the April 7 24:00 to April 21 24:00 pricing window, underpinning the domestic fuel price cuts announced for April 21 24:00 (gasoline -RMB 555/ton; diesel -RMB 530/ton). - China NBS data: March caustic soda (sodium carbonate) output was 3.562 million tons (+3.9% YoY); January–March output totaled 10.371 million tons (+6.5% YoY). March synthetic rubber output was 791,000 tons (-2.5% YoY); January–March output was 2.341 million tons (+4.3% YoY). - Five sources and Reuters calculations indicate Russia cut oil output in April after Ukrainian drone attacks on ports and refineries and disruptions to crude supplies through Russia's only oil pipeline to Europe. Output may have fallen by about 300,000–400,000 bpd from early-year average levels, potentially the steepest monthly drop since the pandemic. Metals - Mysteel: a newly built alumina plant in Guangxi lit its calcination furnace on April 21 and began output; capacity is 1.2 million tons per year. - SMM: China's March alumina trade swung sharply. Imports were 338,300 metric tons (+86.9% MoM, +2,928.8% YoY). Exports were 209,400 metric tons (+43% MoM, -29.4% YoY). - Swiss customs data showed Switzerland's gold exports rose 30% MoM in March. Shipments to the UK jumped from 19.8 tons in February to 57.6 tons, the highest since last December. - U.S. retail sales (Commerce Department): +1.7% MoM, not adjusted for inflation. - Goldman Sachs kept its 2026 average copper price forecast at $12,650/ton and still expects a 490,000-ton surplus by 2026. - BHP said third-quarter copper output was 476,800 tons (-7% YoY). Escondida concentrator investment is expected at $4.4 billion to $5.9 billion. Market talk: trading logic - Urea: Everbright Futures said urea futures jumped Tuesday. Daily output held around 215,600 metric tons, near seasonal highs historically. The market's bearish response to high supply has faded after an extended period, while demand remains firm in the seasonal agricultural peak. Compound fertilizer producers are running at high rates, supporting spot buying. Producers continue destocking. Everbright expects spot tightness to persist in the near term and futures to stay firm within a range, while warning that higher prices increase volatility risk and require close monitoring of demand durability. - Palm oil: Guoxin Futures said market chatter suggests Indonesia has confirmed B50 will start July 1, 2026. Implementation could tighten domestic palm oil supply, and follow-on export policies may amplify the squeeze. Malaysia's previously weak export picture could reverse, driving a sharp afternoon rally. Domestic palm oil futures saw stronger bullish sentiment, with some profit-taking near the close, but the price floor has shifted materially higher. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil rose as well, though less than palm oil. Institutions have also raised the probability of an extreme El Niño in the second half of 2026, increasing concern over 2027 output. If B50 is confirmed, bullish momentum may strengthen and palm oil futures could retest prior highs, with soybean and rapeseed oils likely to follow. The market is in a moderately strong range-trading phase. Key upcoming data and events - April 22, 22:30: U.S. EIA weekly crude oil inventories (week ending April 17). - April 23, 20:30: U.S. initial jobless claims (week ending April 18). - April 23, time TBA: International Grains Council (IGC) Monthly Grains Market Report.

UPDATE: U.S. banks are currently carrying $306 billion in unrealized losses, according to Barchart.

CME's FedWatch tool, cited by CNBC and reported by ChainCatcher, shows markets assigning a 0% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points at its April meeting, and a 100% probability it will keep rates unchanged. By June, the odds of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut stand at 1.7%, versus 98.3% for no change.

Russia has sold almost 22 tonnes of gold so far in 2026 as the ruble has weakened and the country's fiscal position has deteriorated. The Bank of Russia has sold 21.8 tonnes since the start of 2026 to help fund the budget deficit, which Russian and Ukrainian reports said had expanded to $61.2 billion by the end of March. Natalia Milchakova, lead analyst at Freedom Finance Global, told Reuters that gold sales could continue as government spending accelerates well above budget targets. She added that drawing on gold reserves to finance a deficit aligns with actions taken by other central banks, particularly in developing economies. Full article at Kitco:

Core Scientific (Nasdaq: CORZ) said Tuesday that its subsidiary, Core Scientific Finance I LLC, plans to issue $3.3 billion of senior secured notes due 2031 in a Rule 144A private placement. The notes will be guaranteed by five subsidiaries and secured by first-priority liens on substantially all subsidiary assets. The company said proceeds will be used to fund a debt service reserve and to fully repay its delayed-draw term loans under its recently expanded 364-day credit facility. Core Scientific said the financing will support development of new high-density colocation data centers in Georgia, Texas, North Carolina, and Oklahoma. Across five project sites, the company has secured 590 MW of critical IT capacity and 900 MW of grid capacity. In its S-1, Core Scientific cited illustrative projections of $7.8 billion in revenue and $3.5 billion in net operating income through 2031, supported by licensing agreements with CoreWeave. The company described the strategy as one of the most significant transitions by a bitcoin miner into AI infrastructure. Core Scientific has previously said it expects to sell "substantially all" of its BTC holdings during 2026 to help fund the shift. JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley expanded the company's credit line to a combined $1 billion in March. CORZ shares closed Tuesday at $20.38, up 2.57%, and are up 211% over the past year.

Polymarket says it plans to add perpetual futures trading soon, as reports indicate rival Kalshi is also preparing a move into derivatives. According to CoinDesk, Polymarket posted a video on X outlining plans to let users speculate on a range of markets with at least 10x leverage. The product lineup shown includes real-world assets such as gold and silver, equities including NVIDIA and Coinbase, and crypto assets such as Bitcoin. Kalshi has also been linked to plans for perpetual futures support, which would allow U.S. customers to trade non-expiring derivative contracts around the clock using so-called funding rates. For the sector's leading prediction-market platforms, perpetuals would push offerings beyond straightforward wagers on politics, finance, and sports, underscoring broader efforts to diversify revenue and expand product depth. Polymarket and Kalshi currently can offer futures and options under the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) designated contract market framework. It remains unclear whether Polymarket intends to launch perpetual futures on its U.S.-facing platform, its international platform, or both. Decrypt reported it contacted both companies for comment. The push comes as CME Group, a major global derivatives venue, has been positioning around event-based products. Earlier this year, CME Group said it would partner with FanDuel to launch event contracts. Interest in perpetual futures has also been fueled by activity in crypto-native venues. Dune data shows the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid processed $148 billion in derivatives volume last month. In February, Hyperliquid said on X it plans to support "outcome trading," enabling prediction markets and option-like instruments, citing broad user demand. Elsewhere, crypto firms continue to expand derivatives offerings. Coinbase launched U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum futures based on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) last July, offering similar contracts with a five-year term. On Tuesday, Coinbase partnered with Gemini to launch a prediction market, as both companies face two lawsuits filed by New York State alleging their sports- and entertainment-related offerings violate local gambling laws.

The S&P 500 finished the session in the red, erasing about $420 billion in market capitalization.

Markets were jolted by a rapid-fire series of Iran-related headlines, triggering sharp swings across oil, equities and crypto. The Associated Press reported that JD Vance canceled a planned trip to Pakistan. Bitcoin slid to about $74,000 as oil spiked to $92 and the S&P 500 fell, with roughly $240 million in crypto long positions liquidated. After President Donald Trump said the ceasefire would be extended, risk assets stabilized: Bitcoin rebounded to near $76,000, oil fell back below $90, and the S&P 500 moved toward erasing earlier losses. Traders described the pace and reversals as a day-trader's nightmare.

Gold and silver prices sank in midday U.S. trading Tuesday, weighed by a firmer U.S. dollar index and rising U.S. Treasury yields. June gold was last down $85.90 to $4,744.30. May silver fell $3.473 to $76.54. Full article at Kitco: