U.S. President Donald Trump delivered sharply mixed signals on April 22 over the fate of a looming ceasefire deadline, before ultimately declaring it would be extended without a fixed end date. Speaking earlier that morning in a CNBC Squawk Box phone interview, Trump said: "I don't want to extend the ceasefire. We don't have that much time left. I expect bombing to begin, because I believe this is a better position to enter from." Hours later, he posted on Truth Social that the indefinite extension would stay in place until Iran submits a proposal and negotiations reach some form of conclusion. Trump framed the move as a "facesaving" step requested by Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff and Prime Minister, and tied it to what he described as "severe division within the Iranian government." Observers described the reversal as a familiar Trump pattern often labeled "TACO," arguing it looked less like proactive diplomacy than a deadline-driven retreat with few viable alternatives. The latest turn traces back to talks in Islamabad on April 11, when Vice President J.D. Vance led a U.S. delegation to Pakistan for 21 hours of negotiations with Iran, the highest-level direct U.S.-Iran contacts since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Vance said on departure that Iran had "rejected the U.S. conditions." Washington's central demand was that Iran commit "not to seek nuclear weapons," including not only a pledge not to build a bomb but also an agreement to give up capabilities that could enable rapid weaponization. Iran did not accept that condition. Iran's chief negotiator and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the United States must first decide whether it can "earn our trust." After the talks unraveled, the United States announced a maritime blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. A two-week ceasefire framework had been set on April 8, expiring April 22. As the deadline neared, Pakistan said Tehran still had not formally confirmed participation in a second round. Pakistan tightened security in Islamabad, including visible deployments around the Serena Hotel, signaling that confirmation was still pending. Vance was expected to return to Islamabad, but the trip was indefinitely postponed after White House meetings. The Wall Street Journal reported Trump privately considered canceling the trip outright, citing Iran's unwillingness to concede on nuclear enrichment. Iran later conveyed through Pakistani intermediaries that under those conditions talks would be pointless, arguing the United States was blocking any substantive agreement. Trump also faces domestic political constraints tied to oil prices. Deutsche Bank has built a "stress index" combining inflation expectations and U.S. Treasury yields to estimate when the White House is likely to shift policy. Under that framework, the administration tends to soften when oil approaches $95–$100 per barrel, while material policy pressure emerges when the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield nears 4.5%. WTI has already moved above $90, and a renewed escalation after the ceasefire deadline could push prices past $100. Historically, gasoline above $4 per gallon has hurt incumbents' approval ratings. Adding to the timing pressure, Trump plans to visit China in mid-May, seeking to project strength as a "victor" rather than a "wartime president." Analysts argue this makes the "indefinite" extension more of a domestic political signal than a diplomatic concession, buying time without acknowledging defeat. Axios said the extension reduces the risk of renewed war and broader regional escalation, but at the cost of weakening Trump's bargaining leverage. A credible threat of force depends on a real countdown, and repeated reversals can erode the credibility of future ultimatums. Iranian messaging has been split between hardliners and moderates. State television struck a triumphalist tone, calling Iran the "victor on the battlefield" and describing control of the Strait of Hormuz as its most valuable asset. It said Iran had agreed to pause military operations but that "the war is not over." The broadcaster also warned negotiations must exclude topics that "violate Iran's independence and dignity," listing defense and missile capabilities, nuclear capabilities, and technology as top priorities. Hardliners were blunter. An adviser to Iran's Parliament Speaker said Trump's extension was meaningless, arguing "the losing side cannot dictate the terms," and warned the pause was "buying time for a surprise attack." Moderate voices have pointed to a possible opening. Iran's UN ambassador, Ilvani, said the government has received "some signals" that the United States is preparing to lift the blockade, and that "the next round of negotiations will be held in Islamabad" once it is lifted. He said the maritime blockade violates the ceasefire and that removing it is a prerequisite for new talks. Asked about prospects, he said: "We should give it a chance; we remain hopeful." The underlying impasse remains: the United States is pushing for full denuclearization, while Iran insists sanctions relief must come first. Both sides appear to be using time as leverage. For crypto markets, the past two weeks have been dominated by Middle East headlines rather than macro data. Bitcoin jumped to $78,300 last Friday, its highest level since early February, then pulled back into the $75,000–$76,000 range after Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. On April 19, after U.S. forces seized the vessel "TOUSKA," Bitcoin briefly fell below $74,000. On April 21, news of an extended ceasefire lifted Bitcoin back above $76,000, helping drive a broader crypto market gain of more than 1% and pushing total market capitalization to $2.55 trillion. Institutional demand has remained visible. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded roughly $1.29 billion in net inflows from April 14 to 17, after about $1.1 billion in the week around April 10, timing that aligned with shifting ceasefire expectations around the Islamabad talks. Rachel Lucas, an analyst at BTC Markets, said: "Bitcoin's current resilience stems less from narrative and more from market mechanics. Institutional buyers, particularly corporate funds, are aggressively accumulating on every pullback." She added the rebound has coincided with investor focus on the hearing for Federal Reserve chair nominee Walsh, with markets positioning for potential monetary-policy shifts. Derivatives signals have been less supportive. After Bitcoin returned to $75,000, perpetual futures funding stayed negative, suggesting shorts still dominated. That implies the spot move has not been matched by structural bullish positioning, with gains driven more by short covering than new long inflows. Options data from Deribit points to a mixed setup: about $1.5 billion in Bitcoin put options sit around $60,000, while about $1.3 billion in calls cluster near $75,000, creating an options profile with no clear directional bias. Markus Thielen, Head of Research at 10x Research, said the rally has not been accompanied by heavy call buying and looks largely powered by short covering rather than a trend-driven advance. Hughes of Tokenize Capital said momentum could fade next month, with further downside risk in August. CryptoQuant's on-chain model also points to downside pressure, flagging a potential test of $70,000 support; if on-chain momentum continues to weaken, a deeper correction could extend toward $56,000. Morgan Stanley strategist Denny Galindo said Bitcoin is in the "autumn" phase of its four-year cycle, with "winter" approaching. Some analysts argue Bitcoin could reach $80,000 by the end of April if the ceasefire holds and there are concrete signs the Strait of Hormuz is reopening. They caution the call rests on multiple conditions: the ceasefire must remain intact, the blockade must be lifted, negotiations must progress, and energy-supply expectations must stabilize before risk appetite can expand. The broader market has repeatedly profited from betting on Trump stepping back from the brink, whether on tariffs, pressure on allies, or the Federal Reserve. Yet the "TACO" pattern is an inference from past behavior, not a law of nature. A conflict involving Iran carries different stakes—military casualties, sovereignty, and domestic political red lines—and each cycle of brinkmanship can consume the remaining trust needed for negotiations. At some point, the market's ability to trade on "TACO" may fail altogether.

China imported 162 tonnes of gold in March, the highest monthly total in two years. The country's central bank also recorded its 17th consecutive month of gold purchases, lifting total reserves to a record 2,313 tonnes.

Some proceeds from the KelpDAO attack have been laundered into Bitcoin. Analyst Specter reported that an attacker-linked address routed funds to the Bitcoin network through THORChain, lifting the protocol's daily transaction volume to about $211 million, roughly 10 times its 30-day average. Around 442 BTC (about $33 million) is now spread across multiple wallets, with more than 400 addresses used in the transfers. Part of the flow appears commingled with funds tied to earlier North Korea-related attacks.

Li Lin is transferring an approximately 20-member trading team from his family office, Avenir Group, to Bitfire Group, a Hong Kong-listed wealth management firm, according to Odaily Planet Daily. Li Lin owns a 30% stake in Bitfire and plans to support the company's push to win more private-banking clients. Bitfire CEO Livio Weng said the firm will acquire the team and its trading system from Avenir. Avenir has confirmed the deal. Following the planned addition, Bitfire has secured initial investment commitments of about $500 million from family offices and public companies, Bloomberg reported.

Bloomberg reported on April 22 that Li Lin is transferring an approximately 20-person trading team from his family office, Avenir Group, to Bitfire Group, a Hong Kong-listed wealth management company in which he holds a 30% stake. The move is aimed at strengthening Bitfire's appeal to private banking clients. Bitfire CEO Livio Weng said the company will take over both the team and its trading system from Avenir. Avenir has confirmed the transaction. Following the addition, Bitfire has secured about $500 million in initial investment commitments from family offices and publicly listed companies. Bitfire launched its private banking business in August last year and has added roughly 300 clients since, mainly family offices, listed companies, and high-net-worth individuals. The firm plans to broaden its trading strategies to include Ethereum and stablecoins later this year. Bitfire expects assets under management in its private banking unit to surpass $1 billion within two years.

Jefferies said the $293 million attack on Kelp DAO on April 18 underscored critical infrastructure risks that could lead traditional financial institutions to reassess the speed of blockchain and tokenization adoption. In Jefferies' view, attackers minted uncollateralized tokens and borrowed across platforms, sparking selloffs and tightening liquidity. The incident is suspected to be linked to the Lazarus Group and exposed a single point of failure in cross-chain bridge verification mechanisms. As banks and asset managers accelerate tokenization of assets such as funds, bonds and deposits, Jefferies noted the risks may prompt some firms to delay rollouts and focus first on security reviews. Where cross-chain infrastructure is central, vulnerabilities could fragment markets and weaken the real-world usefulness of tokenized assets. Jefferies added that while confidence may take a near-term hit, the long-term direction remains intact. Stablecoins and other use cases still have room to grow as regulation advances and infrastructure continues to mature, though the sector remains early-stage and needs time to improve resilience. (CoinDesk)

ChainCatcher reports that Li Lin is relocating the 20-member trading team from his family office, Avenir Group, to Bitfire Group, a Hong Kong-listed wealth management firm. Li Lin is said to own a 30% stake in Bitfire, aimed at helping the company bring in more private banking clients. Bitfire CEO Livio Weng said the firm will acquire the team along with its trading system from Avenir. Avenir has confirmed the deal. Following the addition of the new team, Bitfire has secured preliminary investment commitments of about $500 million from family offices and listed companies.

Roughly 20 traders and their trading systems from Avenir Group—the single-family office of crypto tycoon Li Lin—are set to be fully integrated into Bitfire Group Holdings Ltd., a Hong Kong-listed wealth manager, Bloomberg reported. Li owns about 30% of Bitfire. CEO Livio Weng said the deal is intended to tap the team's expertise to broaden Bitfire's private banking client base.

Trump is pushing to keep in place a temporary suspension of the U.S. maritime law known as the Jones Act, according to Axios, citing U.S. officials. The waiver was introduced during the Iran conflict to speed up domestic oil movements and ease logistics constraints. The Jones Act, enacted in 1920, mandates that cargo shipped between U.S. ports travel on American-flagged vessels, a requirement widely seen as raising coastwise shipping costs. As fuel prices climbed amid the Iran conflict, Trump signed a 60-day waiver on March 18 to streamline oil transportation. White House data show that since the waiver took effect, 40 tankers have been able to move oil between U.S. ports, including routes from California to Texas, Florida and Alaska. The administration said the measure effectively expanded available tanker capacity by 70% and helped lower transportation costs.